Trump, Biden tied in deep blue Virginia, shocking poll finds

Policy

By Diane Glebova

President Biden and former President Donald Trump are dead even in the state of Virginia, which has not supported a Republican in the White House in two decades, according to a stunning investigation released Wednesday.

Trump, 77, and Biden, 81, each receive 42% support from likely voters in the commonwealth, according to the direct poll from the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.

14% said they would vote for other candidates and the remaining 2% said they were undecided.

When three other third-party candidates were polled, Biden led Trump 40% to 38%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 8% support, Green Party Leader Jill Stein received 3% and independent Cornel West received 1% support.

Another eight percent said they would vote for “other” candidates in the five-way showdown and 2 percent said they were undecided.

Virginia is widely considered a safe state for Biden and has therefore been lightly polled. Previous Roanoke College polls from February and December 2023 showed Biden narrowly ahead of Trump in a state the Democrat won by 10 percentage points four years ago.

Between 1952 and 2004, Virginia voters supported the Republican candidate in every presidential election except one: in 1964, when Democrat Lyndon Johnson defeated Republican Barry Goldwater in a landslide.

However, since the election of Barack Obama in 2008, no Republican Party candidate has won the Commonwealth’s 13 electoral votes, with Mitt Romney coming closest to putting Virginia in the Republican column in 2012.

However, Trump’s team has repeatedly emphasized that it considers Virginia “in play” for November, pointing to poll numbers showing a statistical tie or Biden narrowly ahead.

While the 45th president lost Virginia by double digits four years ago, he came within 5.3 percentage points of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 upset.

“These results suggest that Virginia may be ‘in play’ in November,” agreed Dr. Harry Wilson, senior policy analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.

“But five months is an eternity in politics. This tie or two-point lead seems dramatic, but it is within the margin of error of the February 2024 and November 2023 Roanoke College poll results. Still, it appears that Trump is narrowing Biden’s lead, which has practically disappeared.”

As in most other polls, the economy was ranked as the No. 1 issue for voters (44%), with immigration coming in second at 14% and abortion third at 13%.

The survey also showed that the race is still very volatile, with only 64% of respondents saying they are very sure of their choice, while 28% say they are somewhat certain.

The Roanoke College survey was conducted May 12-21 among 711 Virginia residents. The survey has a margin of error of 4.24%.

Meanwhile, an Economist/YouGov poll released Wednesday shows Trump narrowly leading Biden in a five-way national survey.

Trump got 41% support and Biden got 40% support, while Kennedy got 4% and Stein and West got 1% each.