Madagascar key message update, May 2024: Parts of the Great South-East start to benefit from the benefits of the rice harvest, 2024 – Madagascar

Key messages

• In the Great South, the ongoing legume and peanut harvests should continue to improve household incomes until the root and tuber harvests in July, allowing them to purchase food and cover certain non-food needs. essential in the context of a below-average corn harvest. harvests. Production of all crops in the 2023/24 season was below normal due to uneven distribution of rainfall and below-average accumulations in some areas, which prevented crops from developing and ripening properly . The most affected households are already starting to run out of their food crops, but most can still rely on cash crop harvests to purchase cassava – the most affordable staple – on the market. In addition, with the start of the main rice harvest as well as that of onions, roots and tubers, work opportunities should bring additional income to poor and very poor households. With increased availability of food stocks from own production and in local markets and a seasonal increase in work opportunities, food consumption has improved during the post-harvest period and will support the Stressed (Phase 2 of the ‘IPC) for all districts of the Great South until August/September. However, a portion of the poorest households – who have harvested significantly below average staple crops and have fewer cash crops or other income-generating opportunities – will struggle to cover their food needs and will likely employ coping strategies to the Crisis (IPC Phase 3), especially when household expenditures increase seasonally with various cultural obligations and celebrations and with preparations for the new school year and the next agricultural season.
• In the Great South-East, the rice harvest has already started in places and will extend to all production areas in June. Pulses and groundnuts are also being harvested in Midongy Atsimo and Befotaka, while harvesting of cash crops of coffee, green vanilla and others will begin by July in various production areas. According to key informants, agricultural production is expected to remain below normal in the 2023/24 season due to successive heavy rains earlier this year, causing localized flooding, crop damage and poultry losses in the shallows. However, food consumption and household incomes are starting to improve with the start of the main rice harvest, as household reserves are replenished and crop sales begin. This will improve purchasing power, help recover from flood losses and provide some security against high prices of non-food items such as agricultural inputs for the next agricultural season. The most inaccessible parts of the districts most affected by previous cyclones are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the rice harvest is completed and its benefits become more pronounced, but all other areas of the Great South-East are expected to remain in a Stressed situation (IPC Phase 3). Results from Phase 2) throughout the analysis period with a gradual reduction of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the post-harvest season.
• In terms of production flow, areas with abundant stocks continuously supply deficit producing areas to satisfy local demand. The government continued its policy of fixing the prices of gasoline and diesel, which helps limit the rise in food prices by keeping transport costs stable. As a result, food inflation has declined steadily since the start of 2023, falling from nearly 15 percent to 6.3 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2024. Moreover, with the arrival of the main harvest, Local rice prices are falling. It is likely that it will decrease seasonally while remaining higher than last year. In March, according to price monitoring in the Grand Sud-Est, prices of basic foodstuffs were generally above average, with the highest prices recorded in hard-to-reach areas like Nosy Varika. Here, maize prices reached nearly MGA 4,100 per kilo, and rice and cassava prices averaged MGA 3,000 per kilo. In the South, prices of rice and maize remained seasonally high, at nearly 50 percent or more of the price of a kilo of cassava. Given regulations on Indian rice exports, customs duties and the low value of the Malagasy currency, the price of imported rice increased year-on-year by 32 percent in Toliara and 30 percent in Toliara. hundred in Nosy Varika. Local prices increased year-on-year by 14 percent in Toliara but remained stable in Nosy Varika. Following below-average harvests, households will begin to go to markets earlier than usual, at prices that will remain above average.