World leaders will meet at a Swiss resort on a possible road map for peace in Ukraine. Russia is conspicuously absent

OBBÜRGEN, Switzerland — The presidents of Ecuador, Ivory Coast, Kenya and Somalia will join many Western heads of state and government and other leaders this weekend to plan the first steps towards peace in Ukraine – Russia being notably absent.

Swiss officials hosting the conference said more than 50 heads of state and government, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, would join the gathering at the Bürgenstock hotel complex overlooking Lake Lucerne. Around a hundred delegations, including European and United Nations bodies, will be present.

Who will show up – and who won’t – has become one of the key issues in a meeting that critics say would be pointless without the presence of the government of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and continues the war.

As US Vice President Kamala Harris arrived at the scene, shuttle buses traveled on a mountain road that snaked to the site – sometimes with traffic jams – with police officers along the route checking journalists’ IDs and helicopters carrying VIPs flew overhead.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have sent their foreign ministers while key developing countries like event observer Brazil, India and South Africa will be represented at lower levels .

China, which supports Russia, joins a large number of countries absent from the conference, many of which have more pressing problems than the bloodiest conflict in distant Europe since World War II. Beijing says any peace process must have the participation of Russia and Ukraine and has floated its own ideas for peace.

Last month, China and Brazil agreed to six “joint agreements” on a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, asking other countries to endorse them and play a role in promoting peace talks.

The six points include an agreement to “support a timely international peace conference, recognized by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all parties.” peace plans.”

Zelensky recently led a diplomatic campaign to attract participants to the Swiss summit.

Russian troops, who now control almost a quarter of Ukraine’s territory in the east and south, have made some territorial gains in recent months. When discussions over a Swiss-organized peace initiative began last summer, Ukrainian forces had recently reconquered large swathes of territory, including near the southern towns of Kherson and northern Kharkiv.

Against the backdrop of battlefield and diplomatic strategy, summit organizers presented three agenda items: nuclear security, such as that of the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia power plant; humanitarian aid and exchange of prisoners of war; and global food security – which has at times been disrupted due to hampered shipments via the Black Sea.

This to-do list, which summarizes some of the less controversial issues, falls far short of the proposals and hopes outlined by Zelensky in a 10-point peace formula at the end of 2022.

The plan includes ambitious calls, including the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied Ukrainian territory, a cessation of hostilities and the restoration of Ukraine’s borders with Russia, including Crimea.

Putin’s government, meanwhile, wants any peace deal to be built around a draft deal negotiated in the early stages of the war, which included provisions on Ukraine’s neutral status and limits to its armed forces, while delaying negotiations on areas occupied by Russia. Ukraine’s efforts over the years to join the NATO military alliance have angered Moscow.

Ukraine is incapable of negotiating from a position of strength, analysts say.

“The situation on the battlefield has changed dramatically,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, saying that while Russia “cannot achieve its maximalist goals quickly by military means, it is gaining momentum. magnitude and pushes Ukraine very hard. »

“So many countries attending the summit will wonder whether Zelensky’s peace formula still has any weight,” he told reporters in a phone call Wednesday.

With the world’s attention recently focused on the war in Gaza and the 2024 national elections, Ukraine’s supporters want to once again focus on Russia’s violation of international law and the restoration of territorial integrity of Ukraine.

On Friday, Putin called the conference “just another ploy to distract everyone’s attention.”

The International Crisis Group, a consultancy that works to end conflict, wrote this week that “with no major surprises on the Bürgenstock,” the event is “unlikely to have many consequences.”

“Nevertheless, the Swiss summit is an opportunity for Ukraine and its allies to emphasize what the UN General Assembly recognized in 2022 and repeated in its February 2023 resolution on a just peace in Ukraine: the Russia’s total aggression constitutes a flagrant violation of international law. ,” it said.

Experts say they will review the wording of any final document and plans for the future. Swiss officials, aware of Russia’s reluctance toward the conference, have repeatedly said they hope Russia could one day join the process, as have Ukrainian officials.

“Most likely, the three points discussed will be approved by the participants. But then the big question is, “OK, what comes next?” “, Gabuev said. “And I don’t think we have a very clear answer to that question yet.”

As the leaders headed to the conference venue, the war raged.

Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov of Russia’s southern Belgorod region blamed Ukraine for Friday’s bombing that hit a five-story building in the town of Shebekino, killing five people. There was no immediate comment from Kyiv.

In Ukraine, bombings killed at least two civilians and injured eight others Friday and overnight, regional officials said. Governor Oleh Syniehubov of the Kharkiv region, which has been at the center of a recent Russian offensive, said one shell fell near a kindergarten while others hit houses.

___

Ken Moritsugu in Beijing and Joanna Kozlowska in London contributed to this report.