The silent voter is caught between disillusionment and fear of negative social reactions

At the heart of India’s 2024 elections remains a silent majority, revealing a story of disenchantment, distrust and indecision. This elusive group, marked by high rates of “no answer” and “can’t answer” responses to crucial survey questions, holds the key to understanding the deeper currents shaping the political landscape. This article resolves the silences of the CSDS post-electoral investigation.

The “I don’t know” and “I can’t say” responses in the CSDS survey highlight voter uncertainty due to particular political ideologies, lack of information, indecision, disengagement and fear of social repercussions.

This significant level of indecision suggests that many voters are grappling with fundamental questions about the nature of democracy, the trustworthiness of political leaders, and their own role in the democratic process.

In Table 1, a staggering 31.6 percent of respondents did not know whether opposition leaders were arrested for political reasons or on genuine corruption charges.

Question asked: Recently, a number of opposition leaders have been arrested on corruption charges, but hardly any BJP leaders have been arrested on similar charges. Keeping this in mind, would you say that BJP leaders are less corrupt than opposition party leaders or that opposition party leaders are arrested mainly for political reasons?

Consider the table below.

Table 1: Arrest of opposition leaders and corrupt BJP leaders

Note: All figures are percentages
Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post-survey margins 2024

The high rate of “I can’t say” responses reflects a deep-seated ambivalence among voters, caught in a web of conflicting media reports and political narratives. The perception of political persecution, with 43.8 percent believing that opposition leaders are targeted for political reasons, and only 22.9 percent seeing BJP leaders as less corrupt, paints a picture of skepticism generalized. This distrust erodes trust in political institutions, making governance more difficult and further polarizing the electorate.

This uncertainty can be attributed to several factors: The electorate is bombarded with conflicting narratives from various media sources, leading to confusion and indecision. The polarized media environment makes it difficult for voters to discern the truth. The large percentage of undecideds indicates a lack of trust in political leaders and institutions.

The narrative reaches a critical turning point as we explore views on the current state of political corruption within the BJP. In Table 2, 32.3 percent of respondents were undecided on whether the BJP today is more or less corrupt than in the past.

Table 2: Perception of the BJP as a corrupt party

Question asked: Do you think the BJP of today is more corrupt than the BJP of previous years or less corrupt than the BJP of the past?
Note: All figures are percentages
Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post-survey margins 2024

The response highlights the electorate’s confusion and ambivalence regarding political corruption. While a large portion of the population believes the BJP is either more corrupt today or has always been, the high percentage of undecideds highlights deep uncertainty about the integrity of the party and the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures.

The data reflects a polarized electorate, with a significant portion believing in political persecution and others uncertain about corruption within the ruling party. This polarization can lead to increased political tension and conflict, making it difficult to find consensus on crucial national issues. High levels of indecision and ambivalence can lead to voter apathy. When voters are uncertain about their choices, they are less likely to participate in the electoral process, leading to lower voter turnout and weakening the representative nature of democracy.

The complexity of voters’ indecision extends to their views on the role of citizens in a democracy. In Table 3, 13.2% of respondents were unsure whether citizens should have the right to ask leaders to do certain things or whether leaders should make decisions independently.

Table 3: The right to ask questions to managers

Question asked: Some people think that in a democracy, citizens should have the right to ask the leader to do certain things. Others believe that it is up to the leader to decide what to do and that citizens have no right to intervene. What do you think?
Note: All figures are percentages
Source: Lokniti CSDS NES Post-survey margins 2024

The 13.2 percent who are unsure about the extent of citizens’ rights in a democracy reveal significant uncertainty about the nature of participatory governance. While a majority (66.9%) believes in the right to influence leaders, the sizable undecided minority suggests an ongoing debate about the limits of democratic engagement and authority.

The silence begins with a striking revelation: a significant number of voters refrained from disclosing any political party affiliation. According to Table 4, 12.5 percent of respondents chose not to reveal their political leanings. This silence speaks volumes about a growing disengagement and dissatisfaction with available policy options.

Table 4: Affiliation to a political party

Nearly half of voters, or four in ten, explicitly stated that they did not feel close to any political party. This significant part of the population seems caught between disillusionment and fear of a social backlash, reflecting a crisis of representation. This gives us an explanation for low voter turnout and unpredictable fluctuations in election results.

The significant share of the electorate who does not feel close to any political party (43 percent saying “no” and 12.5 percent not answering) reflects a crisis of representation. This disengagement suggests that many voters feel excluded from the political process and believe that no party adequately represents their interests. Improving civic education can help address voter uncertainty and empower citizens to more actively engage in the democratic process. By understanding their rights and the importance of their participation, citizens can become more informed voters.

Sources used: Lokniti CSDS NES Post Poll 2024 Marginals

(Naman Jaju, a researcher at CSDS Lokniti, is currently pursuing an undergraduate degree in politics at Ashoka University. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are those of the author. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)