Crises can happen at any time – so how can the government be ready?

There will be a lot of discussion and a lot of expectation regarding the first 100 days of a new government. But the hypotheses formulated at this time often obscure any difficulty. Recent history has demonstrated that any new cabinet will need to be prepared to lead the country immediately through a crisis. My colleagues and I have some thoughts on this. We are emergency planners, present before, during and after the crisis, but not always known. I emphasized that for decades there have been plans, planners and planning for emergencies across the civil service, and it is time to bring them out from behind curtains.

I’m fiercely independent of government, but the people I spend the most time with work in either local government or central government departments, preparing for everything from building fires and floods to cyberattacks and clouds. volcanic ash. And these crises can arise as soon as the polling stations close.

The day Boris Johnson was elected prime minister, British emergency planners were already putting pandemic planning meetings on government agendas, as news from China became increasingly alarming. Theresa May was re-elected as Prime Minister in the 2017 election, six days before a fire ravaged London’s Grenfell Tower and five days after a terrorist attack in London’s Borough Market. Just after the final details of a coalition government were ironed out in 2010, a plane crashed in Libya with several nationalities on board, including two Britons. Tony Blair’s tenure as Prime Minister was peppered with major disasters, known in civil service folklore as the “4 Fs”: foot and mouth, fires and fuel fires, floods; and the fourth F was the profanity spoken in number 10 when a new crisis arose.

One of the added dangers of a crisis hitting early in the term is that neither new ministers nor their advisers will have had time to attend the disaster training offered by the Cabinet Office. My best advice would therefore be to prepare for the crisis from day one. Here are my suggestions for what this preparation might look like.

What’s the worst that could happen?

It is crucial that ministers and their advisers understand the entanglement between emergency response and climate change. New floods, new fires, new storms and major disruptions are coming. Just as crucially, many of our national risks involve disruptions to gas, water and electricity; but research suggests much is being expected about how quickly help will arrive and the benefits that could accrue from precautions such as registering as vulnerable with power companies. In reality, there will inevitably be disruptions that could cause considerable damage.

The domino consequences must also be taken into account. Volcanic ash quickly becomes a disaster for the supply chain, for example if flights are disrupted. Emergency planners should be able to inform you of the worst possible scenario and not limit themselves to “only good news for the minister”.

“Emergency planners need to be able to tell you the worst-case scenario, not just ‘good news for the minister’.”

Advisors and ministers will need some knowledge of the terminology. The field of emergency planning and response is surrounded by codes and jargon, which is not always helpful. But it will be helpful to understand key terms like “local resilience forum” – the geographically localized way in which we bring all stakeholders together. The role of JESIP – Joint Emergency Service Interoperability Program – is also good to know. If speakers use jargon, ask for clarity.

Don’t expect too much from the COBR mythos – trust the officials around you, but it’s not a James Bond film. There are no screens with all the bad guys on, and no cool gadgets. However, if your advisors at COBR tell you something is a really bad idea, listen to them; they know the bear traps. And aim to better understand how your data requests impact local government stakeholders. It’s just relentless.

Look back. I’ve seen several transitions of power and one of the things that amazes me – not just about new governments but even new cabinets – is that they stubbornly refuse to open the old filing cabinets (or maybe be that the protocols prevent them). Many lessons learned from the tragedies of the 70s, 80s and 90s are still valid and the plans are good. Yet we have this habit of constantly reinventing the wheel, which is offensive to families who have been through so much and then worked with us for decades to try to prevent this from happening to a new generation. .

I urge you to read the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and supporting documentation. This has been chronically misunderstood. Emergency responses at central government level involve real liaison between ministries. The idea of ​​a responsible government department based on the type of emergency is very important, but it is also very important to have alignment. You can’t learn all of this in a few days, so approach the idea of ​​emergency planning as an area of ​​continuing professional development and know who to ask.

Understand when and when not to request military assistance. New ministers tend to conflate issues such as security, resilience, realm defense, and preparedness. It is important not to assume that the military is there to provide constant reinforcement or to fix everything. Deploying a military response to a civilian incident can have significant downsides. Understanding who does what is crucial.

Don’t expect a situation massively affecting British citizens to happen only in Britain. Overseas disasters can have serious consequences, as can the need to suddenly repatriate large numbers of people. Last summer’s wildfires saw a number of holiday businesses rally to the FCDO’s side. Evacuations from Sudan and Lebanon in recent years required the same management as an emergency here.

It is essential to understand the effects of flooding on households and communities. You will see a lot of them before the end of your first year in office. Many places flood repeatedly, fundamentally affecting our resilience and morale as a nation. A community’s resilience goes far beyond just shopping bags and three days’ worth of canned goods.

“Community resilience is more than handbags and three days of canned goods”

Don’t be tempted to start from scratch with your own “shit list” – something Labor reportedly put together last month. The work carried out by the Cabinet Office on national security risk assessment is an excellent starting point; it is a working document, constantly updated as new risks and geopolitical situations emerge.

Take a brief break from your campaign to hone your crisis management skills. Leading in a crisis is different from leading and requires a long, careful review of your own skills before any activation. Listen When the dust settles as a beep when you’re traveling across the country and get this one from David Omand How to survive a crisis. You must be able to predict and imagine the future and see far beyond the immediate picture.

Crisis communications have forever changed in a post-truth, post-trust era as the world recovers from a global pandemic. Keep tragedy communications authentic and transparent. For example, don’t just pledge your support for a bereaved charter – understand what it actually means to commit to that charter. After the emergence of Covid, the window of public trust is short and trust declines rapidly. Candor is key; it is essential to establish credibility. Responding to media and social media claims is an unwinnable dance. The response cannot combat negativity but must act in parallel.

The most important thing to understand is that poverty, inadequate housing and poor health intersect with a country’s ability to respond to any incident. Crises do not create new fissures; they highlight existing harms and vulnerabilities. Our leaders must be ready to deal with whatever comes their way from day one and accept the valuable help around them.

Lucy Easthope is a leading authority on disaster recovery. His book When the Dust Settles is a Sunday Times bestseller. She is Professor of Mass Deaths and Pandemics at the Center for Death and Society at the University of Bath.