What to watch during the Harris-Trump debate on ABC

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The presidential race is incredibly tight. The latest polls show the two candidates neck and neck.

Both candidates have only one major national event on their calendar before Election Day: a 90-minute debate Tuesday night, hosted by ABC in Philadelphia.

Let’s look at the dynamics here, with four things to watch for.

1. Preparation

Trump’s campaign slogan, MAGA, says a lot about his worldview. But it ignores one of the former president’s most consistent characteristics: he ignores tradition and lets his instincts guide him. Trump’s driving force is a confidence in his own abilities that trumps any other potential preparation. That instinct dismiss typical and detailed preparation.

So, according to campaign sources, the former president is not conducting fake debates. On the contrary, he has been hold the “time of politics” A source told us it was sort of an inside joke that meant prepping for the debate. Specifically, the team sits down with Trump, usually at a table, and goes over his and Vice President Kamala Harris’ policy positions.

Senior adviser Jason Miller, known for his work in communications and media, is leading the preparations, we’re told. The visuals are simple, usually a small team around a table, with Trump sitting in a chair.

Former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard is among those helping Trump. A senior campaign official told us Gabbard is there to get information and make sure there is a woman in the room.

“You can’t have a discussion (debate) when you’re facing Harris with seven guys,” they said.

We’re also told that Florida Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz is a key adviser in Trump’s debate preparation, asking the former president pointed questions. Gaetz said Trump “doesn’t prepare for debates.”

Meanwhile, Harris has been attending a debate prep academy of sorts. According to reports in The New York Times and other sources, she practiced on a mock debate stage with television lighting and an adviser dressed as Trump and acting out his role.

The two opposing approaches will collide on Tuesday evening. In the past, Trump’s relative lack of preparation seems to have hurt him in early debates with his primary opponents. Consider his first debate in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, his first debate in 2020 against Joe Biden, and the 2016 primary debate in which he faced Carly Fiorina, who stunned him with a scathing retort.

For Democrats, the fear is the opposite: Harris might overprepare and sound like she’s prepared a scripted speech or struggle to deliver a series of insights that resemble those of a study session.

2. The first 30 minutes

The debates themselves are the subject of heated debate: is it important or not? And when? But many agree that the beginning of these debates is the most critical period.

Two reasons: This is when the largest audience is watching and when that audience is making their first (and probably second) impression.

During the 2020 election season, The New York Times tracked viewership habits during debates and found that peak audiences were reached about 15 to 20 minutes into the debate and declined after 40 minutes.

For Tuesday’s debate, crank up the first impression factor to 11. Not only will it be the first time Harris and Trump debate, it will also be the first time they meet.

(Remember the conversation about the first handshake between Sarah Palin and Biden, hosted by our Gwen Ifill, in 2008?)

Additionally, this is Harris’ first time participating in a presidential debate during the general election. And it will be her first debate since the 2020 election. Trump hasn’t had many others since, but this relatively recent one was a clear victory for him. (And, ultimately, for Harris.)

During the 2024 Biden-Trump debate in June, The first 30 minutes were crucial. By this point, it was clear that Biden was out of shape. About 21 minutes into the debate, Trump joked, “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either.”

That impression lingered and ultimately helped derail Biden’s re-election bid.

3. Listen to politics

Both candidates made a series of commitments and promises, but each also left large gaps in explaining precisely how they intend to achieve their goals.

An example: Trump has given few details about his plan to mass deport undocumented immigrants, other than to say he would delegate the task to local law enforcement and the National Guard. It’s unclear how he would fund the plan, who would be deported first and what guidelines would govern how law enforcement would identify those to deport.

Watch the video in the player above.

Another example: Harris has yet to outline a comprehensive immigration policy. She said she continues to support the bipartisan immigration bill that has been frozen in Congress. But while substantial, that bill focuses primarily on asylum and immediate needs at the border. A host of other issues remain unresolved in the immigration system, including visas for farm workers and other categories of legal immigrants.

4. Be careful of those who lose their temper.

In an age when politics is driven by emotion and personality, perhaps the most influential factor is the intangible sense of who is the calmest.

Sources within the Trump campaign believe their candidate’s calm demeanor during the debate with Biden was key to highlighting Biden’s issues. The question is whether Trump can remain “calm and Trump” for 90 minutes with Harris.

Harris may not have as much experience as Trump in national debates, but she is a skilled prosecutor who has spent years analyzing her opponents’ pressure points in rhetorical confrontations. (One of her first notable moments in the Senate came during her questioning of now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.)

Each side is eagerly hoping that its candidate will keep his cool and appear in control, while tempting the other to overreact.

With only one microphone on at a time (the one of the person answering the question), don’t just listen to see who is most composed. Pay attention to body language.

Sometimes, on my second viewing of a debate, I do it largely without the sound, and it always gives me at least a grain of new perspective.

This is good news if you get tired of listening to the debate at any point. Turn down the volume. You might learn even more.