Undecided voters may not have wanted to see Harris mock Trump

The question now is whether Harris’ well-executed plan, which involved irritating Trump and joining with moderators and Trump himself to draw attention to her negatives, was what the voters she needs most really wanted.

According to pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis, the answer is no, based on their data from the seven key states. “We found that despite the best efforts of Kamala Harris and the media to portray the debate as some kind of landslide victory for her, voters did not perceive it that way, as support for her remained stable,” they wrote in a note released Thursday. “The only change we saw was a 2-point increase for President Trump in both polling configurations.”

“According to our post-debate data, President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 2 points, 48%-46%, and in the head-to-head poll, he is ahead by 3 points, 50%-47%,” Fabrizio and Tunis continued. “Clearly, voters in the target states were not impressed by Kamala Harris’ empty platitudes, and while the media would have people believe she is on her way to victory, that couldn’t be further from the truth.” Their pre-debate numbers, they said, showed the two candidates were tied.

One might expect that to be the case with the Trump campaign. More independent numbers are needed, as well as more time for voters to digest the debate. But focus groups of undecided voters convened by the Wall Street Journal, The New York TimesAnd Reuters They remained unmoved, even as they agreed that Harris had succeeded in undermining Trump.

“She baited him and he fell for it. It was disappointing,” said a 47-year-old unemployed self-employed woman. Wall Street Journal“But as far as Kamala goes, I didn’t see much politics. She seemed to dodge some of the important questions or revert to refuting what Trump had just said.” The Arizona voter had supported independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. but was now reluctantly leaning toward Trump.

The problem may well be that what Harris accomplished in the debate — energizing Trump, avenging Biden’s defeat that ended her candidacy, defending abortion — did more to excite voters already committed to her, while infuriating Republicans who wish the former president were more disciplined, than to attract angry and disaffected swing voters.

Enthusiasticating the Democratic base, demoralizing Republicans and garnering positive headlines after the debate are not bad things for a candidate in a close race. Clear and real policy National polls show Harris ahead by 1.5 points. But it may not be the knockout blow she’s hoping for.

Pre-debate polls suggested that voters were seeking additional information about Harris far more than about Trump, who at this point is a familiar figure whose weaknesses are well-known.

It’s possible that the voters Harris needed to convince aren’t moved by the same kinds of debate moments that tantalize partisan Democrats and political professionals of all stripes.

“The last The New York Times/According to a Siena poll, Harris is 17 points behind Trump among working-class (non-college) voters,” writes Ruy Teixeira, a political scientist and longtime Democratic commentator now affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute. “That’s identical to Biden’s working-class deficit in recent years.” The New York Times poll before he withdrew and far worse than Biden’s deficit among those voters in 2020 — just 4 points. More detailed The New York Times “The results reveal that Harris, compared to Biden in 2020, is polling 10 points lower among white working-class voters and 18 points lower among non-white working-class voters.”

“The simple message from the focus groups following this debate was that your performance was not fatal,” Erick Erickson, a host of an influential conservative radio show, wrote in an open letter to Trump. “You can still win this race. All you have to do is focus on why Kamala Harris has not done what she says she will do.”

That was Trump’s message in his closing statement. But he wandered for much of the rest of the fight.

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Trump has now ruled out a third debate, while Harris is calling for another. This appears to be an acknowledgement from both candidates that what happened Tuesday night worked in Harris’ favor. Trump naturally disagrees, posting on social media: “When a boxer loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, ‘I WANT A DELAY.’”

Harris did what she set out to do in the debate. Whether it was the right decision remains to be seen.