Wake up to the Washington Examiner: What you need to know about your ballot and Trump’s daring confidence game

Democrats and their fellow abortion rights advocates won huge victories, including in states like the United States Ohio. Strict abortion restrictions, with no exceptions for rape and incest, or banning the procedure within the fifteen-week period, proved far more unpopular than expected.

In November this year, abortion in some form will be on the agenda in ten states. It’s one of many issues for voters to consider, aside from whether he is vice president Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump will take control of the White House.

This week is the Washington Examiner looks at what some of those key under-the-radar voting points will be in our Direct Democracy series.

While both Democrats and Republicans have used “abortion” as a policy item, that one word does not describe the varied plans and proposals being debated. The issue is broad and the battle from state to state is differentiated by different requirements, restrictions and requests, Healthcare Reporter Gabrielle Etzel wrote for us this morning.

Arizona voters are grappling with a state legislature that has already overturned a Civil War-era law that outright banned the procedure. The 15-week ban in effect there exceeded the new law passed before Arizona became a state.

“The abortion rights amendment on Arizona ballots, Proposition 139would enshrine in the state constitution a “fundamental right to abortion and prohibit the state from interfering with access to abortion before fetal viability — or the point at which a fetus can survive outside the mother’s womb,” Gabrielle wrote.

Like Arizona, Florida and Missouri are considering amendments that would enshrine basic abortion rights in their state constitutions.

The fate of the measures in those states appears to be on different tracks.

Florida now has a six-week abortion ban in place and is reversing it Amendment 4 would require 60% support from voters. That seems like the bar is set too high, as the latest poll shows only 46% of voters support the amendment.

However, Missouri law only requires a simple majority of support, and “an August poll University of St. Louis found that 52% of voters would vote ‘yes’ to enshrining the abortion rights amendment in the state constitution, meaning the amendment could pass since all it would take is a simple majority vote,” wrote Gabrielle.

Then there are states that have no plans at all to tighten access to abortion, even as voters consider abortion-related questions.

Colorado’s abortion amendment would essentially free up Medicaid dollars to fund abortions in the state — a historically unpopular proposal.

And New York is trying to push through a broader equal rights amendment that includes references to “pregnancy outcomes” and “reproductive autonomy” but does not mention abortion outright.

Click here to read more about the varied battle for abortion access taking place next week.

Confidence campaign

Trump is certainly not subdued. He exudes brash certainty and is certain that not only does he know best, but that he has surrounded himself with the brightest, smartest, and strongest people.

Standing on stage in Las Vegas last week, the former president told a crowd there is no doubt he will win and make it big in the Silver State.

“We are leading the way in Nevada by a wide margin. We are leading by a wide margin in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even in states that are usually never in play.” Trump boasted during a campaign stop in Las Vegas. “Big states are all in the game.”

Maybe he’s right. Trump recently caught up with Harris in Nevada after chasing her there throughout September. But his lead, according to the Real clear politics poll averageamounts to only 0.7 points.

It’s a similar story in Pennsylvaniawith Trump +0.5; Michiganwith Trump +0.2; And Wisconsinwith Trump +0.3.

White House reporter Haisten Willis is busy this morning with a look at the problems such a confident message could pose to a campaign win nationally by only 0.1 point.

“While Trump is known for his showman personality and will always exude strength, there are some indications that a sense of confidence has leaked into the Republican atmosphere,” Haisten wrote. “Axios reported that Republicans are ‘shockingly confident’ in the outcome, and were already privately discussing policy playbooks and new jobs in January.”

“GOP members who have spoken to the Washington Examiner emphasized that Trump’s team is fully committed behind the scenes and is taking nothing for granted,” he wrote.

Trump’s own messages and what the people running his campaign tell donors vary. The candidate is creating excitement at rallies by telling his supporters they have nothing to fear if he is on the ticket.

Behind the scenes, political actors are sending a more down-to-earth message.

“I don’t think Trump campaign completely underestimates Harris,” Scott Jenningsa CNN commentator and longtime advisor to Senator Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Haisten said. “Based on my observations and conversations, they are all working to complete this thing at full speed.”

Staying ahead of polls, like putting on a show and doing retail politics, is one of the things Trump does best.

“At this stage in 2016 he was behind Hillary Clinton nationally by 5 points in a race he would win,” Haisten writes. “In 2020, Trump followed the president Joe Biden with 8 points. He outperformed his poll numbers both times, so if that pattern continues, Trump will almost certainly win this time.”

Click here to read more about the benefits and pitfalls of Trump’s confidence campaign.

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For your radar

Harris storms Michigan, speaking at campaign events in Saginaw at 2:20 p.m., Macomb County at 5:20 p.m. and Ann Arbor at 7:15 p.m.

Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) will join Harris in Ann Arbor after campaigning in Manitowoc and Waukesha, Wisconsin.

Biden will cast his early vote in Wilmington, Delaware, at 11 a.m. before returning to Washington, DC. He will hold a virtual meeting with National Guard members at 3 p.m. to thank them for their actions in North Carolina and will speak with elected officials in states affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton at 3:15 p.m.

The president will deliver an address at a reception to mark Diwali at 5:30 p.m

First lady Jill Biden and Gwen Walz will speak at Harris-Walz campaign events in Traverse City, Michigan, at 1 p.m., Bay City, Michigan, at 4 p.m., and La Crosse, Wisconsin, at 7 p.m.

Trump will speak at the inaugural National Faith Summit in Powder Springs, Georgia, at 2 p.m., and will host a rally in Atlanta, Georgia, at 6 p.m.

Senator JD Vance (R-OH) will speak at campaign events in Wausau, Wisconsin, at 3:00 PM and in Racine, Wisconsin, at 6:30 PM.