Satellite photos show that an Israeli strike likely hit a key Iranian Revolutionary Guards missile base

Jon Gambrell
| Associated press

Dubai, United Arab Emirates — Israel’s attack on Iran likely damaged a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press showed on Tuesday.

The damage to the base in Shahroud raises new questions about the Israeli attack early Saturday, especially since it took place in an area previously unrecognized by Tehran and involved the Guard, a powerful force within the Iranian theocracy that has until now has remained silent about possible damage. suffered from the attack. Iran has only identified that Israeli attacks are taking place in the provinces of Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran – and not in the rural province of Semnan, where the base is located.

It also potentially limits the Guard’s ability to produce the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran has long relied on that arsenal because it cannot buy the advanced Western weapons that Israel and Tehran’s Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, especially from the United States.

Satellite photos previously analyzed by the AP of two military bases near Tehran, which are also targeted by Israel, show that sites there that Iran uses for ballistic missile production have been destroyed, putting further pressure on the program come to be.

“We don’t know whether Iranian production is crippled, as some people say, or just damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who researches Iran. “We have seen enough images to show that there is an impact.”

Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military declined to answer questions from the AP, but sent an earlier statement acknowledging that it targeted “missile production facilities” in the attack.

Images show a large building at the Shahrou base destroyed

High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC, taken for and analyzed by the AP, showed damage at the Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, some 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital Tehran. Semnan also hosts the Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran’s civilian space program.

The footage showed that a central, large building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed; the shadow of the still-standing frame could be seen in the photo taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles could be seen gathering around the site, likely belonging to officials surveying the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the nearby main entrance to the site.

Three small buildings just south of the main building also appeared to be damaged. Iran has built new buildings on the base in recent months. Another hangar northeast of the main building also appeared to be damaged.

Iran has not acknowledged any attack on Shahroud. However, given the damage to multiple structures, it suggested that the Israeli attack included targeted attacks on the base. Low-resolution images since the attack showed signs of damage at the site that was not visible before the attack – further pointing to Israeli missile strikes as the culprit.

“We cannot 100% rule out the possibility that it is something else, but it is almost certain that this building was damaged by an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.

Given that the large building was surrounded by earthen berms, this indicates that it contained explosives, said Hinz, who has long studied the site. That central location likely handles the mixing and pouring of solid propellants, he added.

Large boxes next to the building are also likely crates for rocket engines, Hinz said. Their sizes suggest they could be used for Iran’s Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran claims can reach Mach 15 – which is 15 times the speed of sound. Both were used in Iran’s attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and the later ground invasion of Lebanon.

The attack on Shahroud, combined with other attacks across the country, has likely put more pressure on Iran’s theocracy, especially as the country assesses the damage to its main weapons arsenal and tries to downplay the attack.

“Thanks to the preparedness and vigilance of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the timely response of the country’s air defenses, limited damage was inflicted on some of the affected points,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed on Tuesday in a meeting with foreign diplomats. Tehran “Necessary measures were immediately taken to make the damaged equipment operational again.”

The US fears that the Guard’s space program is a cover for missile research

A short distance from the destroyed buildings is a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has carried out a series of successful missions launching satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, unveiled its secret space program in 2020.

The U.S. Intelligence Community’s 2024 Global Threat Assessment said Iran’s continued development of satellite launch vehicles would “shorten the timeline for production of” an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.

Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing near weapons-grade uranium following the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons if it chooses to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned.

Iran has always denied having nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, has purely civilian purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. Parchin, one of two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, saw a building linked to that program destroyed.

“Just like with Iran’s nuclear program, you don’t build the system yourself, you build all the technology under cover of a civilian program,” Hinz said.

Iran could then make the decision to pursue the weapon – or use its knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West over international sanctions.

But for now, the satellite photos suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of Israel’s attack.

“The picture that emerges is one of significant damage to Iran’s air defenses and missile launch facilities, both of which would be intended to demonstrate to the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further attacks if they attempt retaliation,” said an analysis published Monday was published by This is what two experts from the British Royal United Services Institute say.