Sinwar’s death is an Osama bin Laden moment. Now there is real hope that the guns will fall silent

Yahya Sinwar’s disappearance opened a clear door to ending the war in the Middle East. It could lead to the release of the remaining October 7 hostages and potentially a ceasefire and partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza. There is also the prospect of a ceasefire in Lebanon if significant pressure is exerted by the Biden Administration. Even the Iranians and their regional allies will breathe a sigh of relief.

The atrocity of October 7, 2023 was Hamas’ “Hiroshima” moment. With an increasingly right-wing and unpopular government in Israel wavering in the face of domestic protests, and with the Trump administration’s inspired Abraham Accords gaining traction, the stage seemed set for a historic realignment of the Middle East with Israel secure within its borders. own borders, guaranteed by the Sunni Arab world led by the Gulf states. This, in turn, would have led Israel to reduce and even reverse its illegal settlements on Palestinian lands. There would have been a path to the creation of a State for Palestine and true peace in the region.

Hamas and its supporters in the Iranian theocratic regime realized that if all this happened, the world would no longer need them. The intention of October 7th was to plunge the region into war – to provoke the Israelis so much that there would be an all-out regional conflict. Israeli violence would define attitudes for generations, guaranteeing the future of Hamas and the influence of the Tehran regime.

In the last terrible year, we have seen the almost complete destruction of Gaza and the neutralization of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The regime in Tehran is kneeling before the executioner’s bloc, facing the destruction of its oil processing and exploration facilities and a significant threat to its nuclear ambitions. Such a blow could have been fatal for this decrepit regime, so hated by its own people.

But in the same year, we saw a popular protest movement on the left across the world and, most importantly, in the West, turning against Israel and its supporters, to the point that it is generating divisive political groups, popularizing extremist beliefs and further isolating not just Israel. , but the Jewish diaspora around the world, in a way that would have seemed inconceivable just five years ago.

Any ceasefire or agreement has always depended on the release of the hostages who remained alive. There was also one more red line; the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of October 7th. Sinwar, an experienced terrorist, knew this and would never agree to the release of the hostages, knowing that it would mean his certain death. There was no pressure from his friends and allies, whether within Hamas, the Iranian regime or other affiliated groups in the region, including Hezbollah, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds force or others, to move him forward.

Now Hamas has been decapitated – literally – and Hezbollah’s leadership has been enormously degraded, both by the selective elimination of its charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah and his main sponsor within the Quds Force, Major General Esmail Qaani. This is without even mentioning the devastation of his middle management by the effects of “Operation Grim Beeper” – the explosive pager attack followed by the explosion of walkie talkies and solar panels. The forces that Iran relied on to keep Israel in a defensive posture are, if not destroyed, enormously degraded.

My conviction is that demands for a ceasefire from the Biden administration and the Arab world, led by Egypt, will be irresistible. I have no doubt that the Israelis will be waiting for one last big blow to Iran in retaliation for its missile attacks on Israel, but the US and regional allies will say “enough!” The deal could be sweetened by some of Iran’s regional allies, with Qatar possibly having to expel Khaled Mashel, the last man in Hamas leadership.

That said, there is great uncertainty regarding the number of hostages still alive – and the numbers that Hamas may feel it can release alive, given the almost certain sexual and physical abuse that the young men and girls are likely to have suffered at the hands of their captors. . But I think the US will demand an end to the impasse and I believe the rest of the Hamas leadership – under pressure from its ignorant people – will relent.

But will Benjamín Netanyahu and his cabinet do so? Will they call for one last punch at Iran? With a US presidential election approaching, I doubt it.

This could be the end. The pressure for peace may now prove irresistible, even for Netanyahu.

Colonel Tim Collins is a former British Army officer who served in the SAS and as commander of the Royal Irish during the 2003 invasion of Iraq, when his pre-battle speech to his soldiers made headlines around the world.

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