America’s European allies face challenging times regardless of who wins the presidential election

Ian Lesser, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that “Europe is above all looking for predictability from Washington,” and that is in short supply in a turbulent world where each government faces different demands on its attention. “But the potential for disruption is clearly greater in the event of a potential Trump administration.”

“There is an assumption of essential continuity” under Harris that is likely well-founded, he said, and many of the people who shaped policy under Biden are likely to stick around. “It is very much the known world, even if the strategic environment itself presents uncertainties.”

While both the US and Europe increasingly focus on competing with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means that “the potential costs of shifting European security to the US side are much higher today than they were a few years ago. ,” said Lesser. Europe’s ability to deal with that depends on how quickly it happens, he said.

Europe’s lagging defense spending irked U.S. governments of both parties for years, though NATO members, including Germany, upped their game after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO predicts that 23 of 32 allies will meet their target of spending 2% or more of gross domestic product on defense this year, compared to just three a decade ago.

Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge in a way that the United States may not ultimately see, even as signs of war fatigue emerge in Europe itself.

If Trump wins, “the whole picture is that he has no interest in continuing to support Ukraine in this war” and will quickly push for some kind of ceasefire or peace deal that Kiev may not like and Europe may not like is ready for. said Tausendfreund. “And there is simply no way for Europe to fill the military void left if the US were to withdraw support.”

“Even under a Harris administration, there is a growing and evolving debate — frankly, on both sides of the Atlantic — about what comes next in the war in Ukraine, what the end game is,” Lesser said.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who awarded Biden Germany’s highest honor for his services to transatlantic relations, hopes Biden’s compatriots are listening.

“In the coming months, I hope Europeans will remember: America is indispensable to us,” he said. “And I also hope that Americans remember: your allies are indispensable to you. We are more than just ‘other countries’ in the world: we are partners, we are friends.”

Whoever wins the White House, the next few years could be bumpy.

“Whatever the outcome next week, half the country is going to leave angry,” Lesser said, noting that there is “every prospect” of a divided government in Washington. “Europe will have to deal with a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America.”

___

Associated Press writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.