Climate change has intensified the ten deadliest extreme events of the past twenty years

An investigation led by the international Attribution of world weather (WWA) Network concludes that climate change has intensified the ten deadliest extreme weather events recorded worldwide over the past two decades, claiming at least 576,042 lives. The scientists in this group analyzed three tropical cyclones, four heat waves, one drought and two floods recorded between 2004 and 2023. They conclude that human-induced climate change is mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation made these ten events “more intense and likely.” Among the disasters analyzed are two intense heat waves (one in 2022 and one in 2023) that hit European countries and claimed the lives of more than 90,500 people.

“What we see in this study is that climate change has already made life incredibly difficult and really dangerous,” said one of the authors, Joyce Kimotai, a researcher at the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. “And we are only at 1.3 degrees of warming,” she adds, referring to the increase in the average temperature on earth already recorded with the pre-industrial era as a reference, that is, before the mass burning of fossil fuels began. Last week the UN warned that current policies by the world’s governments are leading to warming of more than 3ºC.

This report coincides with the deadly floods in Spain. Although no research has yet attributed this event to climate change, a large number of scientific studies suggest that the footprint of global warming can be found in the increased frequency and intensity of such events. “Without a doubt, these explosive rainfall events have increased due to climate change. With every fraction of a degree of warming,” says WWA director and founder Friederike Otto, “the atmosphere can retain more moisture, leading to more intense rainfall.”

The report on the ten deadliest weather events and their link to the climate crisis dates back to 2004, as that is when the first of these attribution analyzes was published, citing a deadly heat wave in Europe. Ten years later, the WWA was founded, whose work focuses on producing rapid attribution analysis and has since published 80 such studies. What was and is intended, Otto explains, is to help the population understand that climate change is not something “abstract” but is related to their daily lives. “Thanks to media stories about our findings, many people now understand that climate change is already making life more dangerous and that there are many things that can be done better to prepare for climate extremes.”

The WWA study, published to mark the tenth anniversary of the founding of this group of experts, is based on six existing attribution studies, which have been reviewed, and four new ones prepared for the occasion, Kimotai explains. The researchers conclude that “many of the 576,042 deaths were avoidable, and all countries must redouble their efforts to adapt to extreme weather.” Among the recommendations of these experts is the need to implement early warning systems that are truly effective, and to prepare cities and infrastructure for extreme events that will increase.

These are the events analyzed: Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh in 2007, which caused 4,324 deaths; Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008, which killed 138,366 people; the 2010 heat wave in Russia (55,736); the 2010 drought in Somalia (258,000 deaths); the 2013 floods in India (6,054 victims); Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013 (7,354 victims); the 2015 heat wave in France (3,275 deaths); heat waves in much of Europe in 2022 and 2023 (53,542 and 37,129 deaths respectively); And Storm Daniel in Libyawhich killed 12,352 people. All of these events have been exacerbated by climate change, either by increasing rainfall and winds in some cases, or by raising temperatures and creating droughts in others.

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