Trump is ahead of Harris in the North Carolina poll – and has room to grow

Although Kamala Harris is trying to copy Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, she likely won’t be able to accomplish what the Democratic president’s last two terms did that year.

This is evident from a new Lowell survey from the University of Massachusetts, which shows Donald Trump ready to win the crucial North Carolina for the third time in eight years.

The poll of 650 likely voters between Oct. 16 and 23 shows Trump’s lead right between his 3.66-point margin in 2016 and his smaller 1.34-point victory in 2020.

The former president receives 47% of the vote, while Harris receives 45%. Four percent say they are undecided, while third-party candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein account for 1%, and another 1% opt for the mysterious “other candidate.”

The key to Trump’s vote shareas is often the case in polls where he is ahead, the battle of the sexes is winning against the vice president. Both candidates take their own gender, but Trump is +12 among men, while Harris is only +7 among women.

With only 3% of men being undecided, compared to 5% of women, Trump theoretically has room to leverage that advantage even further.

The racial divide is also large in this competition.

Trump takes 58% of white voters, giving him a 22-point lead over Harris, with the rest an undecided or leaning third party.

With black voters, Harris is up 79% to 11%, while the remaining 10% are not committed to any of the major candidates.

Otherwise, candidates perform remarkably evenly in important parts of this sample.

Both have 92% support within their own party, pouring cold water on the stories. Republicans are crossing party lines to chide Trump for one rhetorical excess or another.

Ninety-five percent of Harris voters say they are stuck on their choice, while 92% of Trump supporters report the same is true for them.

This poll also looked at the race for governor, and as with any survey of Tar Heel State voters, there is little hope for GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson.

He trails Attorney General Josh Stein 48% to 36%, but struggles mainly with independents, with Stein leading him 52% to 13%; 7% support third-party candidates, 27% are undecided and 2% are not voting in the race.