Can India reach the ICC WTC final if they lose the third Test against New Zealand in Mumbai? Scenarios explained – Firstpost

The third and final Test against New Zealand at the Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai is by no means a dead rubber for Team India despite surrendering an unassailable 0-2 lead to the Black Caps. With the introduction of the ICC World Test Championship in the summer of 2019, the concept of dead rubber in Test cricket was removed as each match that is part of a two-year cycle earns teams points, which could be valuable when it comes to qualifying for the final. .

The Rohit Sharma-led hosts have been disappointing in the Test series against the Black Caps so far. India suffered an eight-wicket defeat at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru after being bowled out for 46 in the first innings. That was followed by a 113-run loss in Pune within three days as the hosts failed to keep the series alive despite restricting their opponents to 259 and 255.

As a result, India suffered their first Test series defeat at home since the 1–2 loss to England in December 2012, ending a run of 18 consecutive series victories. New Zealand, on the other hand, had not won a Test in India for 36 years, but won just two in the space of ten days, achieving their first-ever Test series victory on Indian soil.

India remain at the top of the WTC standings with a points percentage of 62.82 despite back-to-back defeats to the Black Caps, although their path to a third successive final has become trickier after their struggles in the ongoing series.

How will a defeat in Mumbai affect India’s chances of reaching the ICC WTC final next year?

India needed to win four of the last six Tests of the 2023-25 ​​WTC cycle to qualify for a third consecutive final without having to rely on other teams. And beating New Zealand in Mumbai before catching the flight to Australia would have made things a little easier for Rohit and Co – not that winning three matches in the five-Test series Down Under will be an easy task .

However, a defeat in Mumbai will be a major blow to India’s hopes of reaching the final. Not only will India suffer the ignominy of a 0-3 whitewash at home – a first for them since the 0-2 sweep against South Africa in 2000, they will also be faced with the unlikely task of winning four of the five Tests in Australia to win. .

It is certainly not impossible as India have won their last two Test engagements in Australia. But the current Test team led by Pat Cummins has been a lot more successful than the one led by Tim Paine, with the former helping the Aussies win the final of the World Test Championship with a victory over India at The Oval last year.

So India will most likely be reliant on other results to progress to the final and their eyes will be on South Africa, who will play two home Tests each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan after completing a 2-0 draw. sweep in Bangladesh, leaving them at fourth spot with a points percentage of 54.17.

Sri Lanka (55.56) remain in third spot after a 2-0 sweep against New Zealand on home soil, but face a major challenge against the Proteas in their backyard as they look to win their first more than reaching the final of an ICC event. a decade.