Ukraine: Putin is unlikely to appear at the negotiating table regardless of who wins the US elections

CNN
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Russia watches American policy like a hawk.

That was the message from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reporters in Kiev last week, when he answered a question about Moscow’s willingness to negotiate. “It depends on the elections in the United States,” he said.

If Kamala Harris is elected, he is expected to largely continue the policies of the Biden administration, which supported Ukraine despite some points of friction, such as using Western weapons to strike deep into Russia.

Donald Trump has taken a drastically different stance, suggesting he will end support for Kiev’s war effort and claiming he could settle the war “in a day.” The terms of a peace plan by his vice presidential candidate JD Vance look strikingly similar to Putin’s wish list.

US policy is at a crossroads, but that won’t necessarily translate into a turning point in peace negotiations, analysts say.

That’s because there is nothing to indicate that Russia is willing to come to the table, regardless of who ends up in the White House.

“What (Trump) thinks he can do, what influence he has, is unclear at this point — but I don’t think it’s a quick process,” said Thomas Graham, an expert on Russian foreign policy and a leading member of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Council on Foreign Relations.

However, a reduction in U.S. aid spending could well translate into changes on the battlefield, experts say.

With both potential presidents, Putin will seek to exploit what he sees as political dysfunction in the United States, as well as “cracks in Western unity,” Graham told CNN.

Those cracks could come in the form of a Trump administration cutting U.S. aid and a… smaller role in NATOor a divided U.S. Congress, among other factors. The financial pressure on European allies also plays a role, as does the division within NATO, with pro-Russian leaders in member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.

“Absence of Western unity, absence of a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what they are trying to achieve… Putin has no reason at this point to reconsider what he is doing in Ukraine,” Graham added.

The scale of the war is also too big for simple negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, experts say. They argue that it is a much broader conflict between Russia and the West.

For Putin, “Ukraine is just a means to an end, and the goal is to further limit American influence in international affairs,” said John Lough, associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Program at London think tank Chatham House .

“If Trump’s advisers explain to him what is really going on here and the fact that China has played a key role in maintaining Russia’s ability to continue fighting this war, he may suddenly feel very strongly that he is not very well disposed towards Putin.” Lough said, adding that Beijing will view any concession “as a further indication of American weakness.”

That goes against Trump’s tough approach rhetoric about the threat posed by China.

An exhausting war plays into Putin’s hands

Ukraine is already outgunned and Putin seems willing to accept a large number of victims. According to NATO, more than 600,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured.

“The enemy is expanding its forces to drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region at any cost,” said Oleh Shiryaev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion fighting in the region. The surprise invasion of Ukraine across the Russian border. “Russia’s most important element in this war is the number of troops – these are extensive attacks and offensive actions. They do this in all parts of the front line.”

In Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region, another commander of Ukraine’s security service said: “By sending a large number of personnel into battle as cannon fodder, they are trying to gain a foothold in the gray areas of the front.” The officer, who asked to be identified only by his call sign “Bankir,” which means accountant, told CNN that a complex system of fortifications in Zaporizhia is helping Ukraine defend the front line.

But Kiev knows that is not enough. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian parliament voted to extend martial law and the draft for another 90 days. There are plans to call up another 160,000 people, the National Security Council announced.

The Ukrainian military who spoke to CNN said Russia also has other advantages, such as numerous drones, expensive planes and more vehicles that make fighting possible during the muddy autumn and winter.

Ukraine needs support for both its infantry and its equipment fund, military officials said.

“We have ammunition, but as artillerymen say, there is never enough,” said Vitaliy Milovidov, spokesman for the National Guard’s 15th Brigade, which is fighting in the eastern region of Donetsk, where Russian forces are making increasing gains.

If a potential Trump administration were to cut U.S. aid, Ukraine would fall further behind.

European countries are doing their utmost to increase ammunition production for Ukraine to prevent a relapseIn the event that American support disappears.

But even if U.S. policy continues on its current course, Kiev’s Western allies appear unwilling to send the level of resources needed to make major gains on the battlefield.

“My suspicion is that this will continue, possibly at a lower intensity, but for a long time,” Chatham House’s Lough added. “A Harris administration would certainly not betray the Ukrainians, but it would test their Ukrainian resolve and whether they are willing to continue fighting this exhausting war.”

That is why Putin’s strategy also seems aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian population.

Russia has done that repeatedly civilians attacked and civil infrastructure. It has also put pressure on Ukraine’s energy grid, exacerbating problems for ordinary Ukrainians, who face a winter marred by a lack of heating and water.

Analysts say the Ukrainian population is certainly exhausted, but they too don’t seem willing to settle in any way. After the massacres of civilians in Bucha and Mariupol, the brutal treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian custody and the forced deportation of Ukrainian children by the Russian state, they know the brutal reality of the Russian occupation.

Zelensky, meanwhile, continues to call for bipartisan support. If Trump “just wants to force Ukraine to give up everything and make a deal with Russia, I don’t think that’s possible,” he said Thursday.