Kansas vs. Kansas State Football Prediction: What the Analytics Say

The Governor’s Cup dates back to 1902 and this year finds No. 16 Kansas State trying to keep its Big 12 title hopes alive against rival Kansas on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest predictions for the game from a football expert who picks the winners.

Kansas started 0-3 in conference play, albeit in close games decided by an average of 6.3 points, but bounced back with its first league win after dominating Houston last weekend.

Kansas State has won 3 consecutive Big 12 games since losing its first conference date, against BYU, and has scored 40+ points in two of those matchups.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computational prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models are heavily siding with the Wildcats over the Jayhawks.

Kansas State is expected to win the game in a majority of 75.2 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kansas as the expected winner among the remaining 24.8% of Sims.

In total, the Wildcats came out ahead in 15,040 computer projections, while the Jayhawks emerged as winners in the other 4,960 predictions.

The index expects a double-digit win for the Wildcats on the scoreboard in this matchup.

Kansas State is projected to be 10.1 points better than Kansas on the same field in both teams’ current makeup, according to the latest model prediction.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Wildcats to cover the spread in this game.

That’s because Kansas State is a 10.5-point favorite against Kansas according to FanDuel Sportsbook lines, meaning it would need to win by at least 11 points to cover.

Most bettors project the Wildcats to exceed that threshold against the Jayhawks, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the game.

Kansas State is taking 65 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread against KU.

The other 35 percent of bets predict Kansas will beat its rivals or keep the game below the 10.5-point line.

Kansas State is third among the Big 12 teams with a 38.4 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI metrics.

This model gives Kansas a 4-game win total prediction and puts it last in the conference with a 0 percent playoff chance, and second worst with a 9.1 percent chance of playing in a bowl game.

Kansas State is projected to win 9.9 games this season and have the best odds in the conference (13.5%) to win the rest of the way.

The Football Power Index (FPI) college football ratings and computer prediction models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Ratings and scoring predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting and team schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent as in other rankings, but by a projected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in parentheses

1. Oregon (59)
2. Georgia (2)
3. State of Pennsylvania
4. Ohio State
5. Texas
6. Miami
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Clemson
10. Iowa State
11. BYU
12. Notre Dame
13. Indiana
14. Texas A&M
15. Alabama
16. Kansas State
17. Boise State
18. Old Miss
19. Pittsburgh
20. Illinois
21. Missouri
22. SMU
23. Army
24. Navy
25. Vanderbilt

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Game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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