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Trump-Harris polls in Arizona 2024: Here’s who wins

Posted on by Pranco
Trump-Harris polls in Arizona 2024: Here’s who wins

Topline

Former President Donald Trump has a four-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, a new swing state poll from the New York Times shows — representing his largest lead of any battleground state surveyed.

Key facts

Trump is ahead 49%-45% among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll released on Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

Trump led Harris by a slightly larger five points (51%-46%) in a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll released on October 12 (margin of error 4), in line with the four-point lead he had over the vice president in September.

Trump also leads 51%-47% among likely voters in a cooperative election study questionnaire Released this week (2,066 respondents) – a large-scale survey sponsored by universities and conducted by YouGov.

Several other polls show a tight race, with Harris up 48%-47% over Trump in a CNN/SSRS poll out Tuesday, and Trump leads 50%-49% in a Marist poll of likely voters published on October 24 – virtual ties given the polls’ margins of error (4.4 points for CNN/SSRS and 3.7 points for Marist).

Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris by 2.6 points FiveThirtyEight‘s weighted polling average, raising the prospect that Trump will retake the state after Biden wins it in 2020.

The former president also had a 51%-48% lead over Harris in a CBS/YouGov A survey of likely voters was released on October 18, as Trump maintains a commanding lead among voters who see the economy and the border as important factors – although Harris leads with voters who see abortion and democracy as important issues.

Among likely Latino voters in Arizona, Harris led Trump 56%-42% according to the CBS poll: slightly smaller than President Joe Biden’s lead in 2020 (more than 30% of Arizona residents are Hispanic or Latino).

Trump has an advantage over Harris in Arizona on the economy, the Times reported, noting that the former president has a narrow lead on who could best help the working class.

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Ballot initiatives on immigration and abortion could be decisive for Arizona

Arizona voters will vote on statehood Initiative for the right to abortionthat would codify abortion rights in the state constitution. An immigration and border law enforcement measure—which would make illegally crossing the Arizona border from Mexico a state crime, allowing state police to arrest and detain migrants and deport state judges — will also be discussed. Harris and Democrats are counting on the abortion ballot measure to prove successful — as similar initiatives have done seven other states where they voted — while Trump hopes the same for the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a major concern in Arizona, the Associated press reported, noting that frustration over illegal immigration in the state continues after a increase in the number of migrants crossing.

Important background

Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state in 2020 by just 10,457 votes to Biden. Despite the loss, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and later claimed the entire voter database of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, was deleted. Republican officials overseeing the election refuted Trump’s claim, with Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer characterizing Trump’s statement as “unhinged.” Trump also tried to pressure former Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call that if enough fraudulent votes were identified it would change the results in his favor would turn around. The Washington Post reported. In addition to Arizona, Trump is competing with Harris in six other swing states. They all stay tightly contested.

Read more

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Maintains Lead in Arizona, While Harris Maintains a Narrow Lead in Pennsylvania (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris leads crucial swing state in latest poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Georgia 2024: Harris has surprising 1-point lead in new survey (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads in Latest Survey (Forbes)