Could Nebraska's Senate seat be flipped by an independent?

Of all the competitive U.S. Senate races this year, Sen. Deb Fischer, R-Nebraska, was expected to handily win reelection, where Trump won with about 58% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. But that was before Then Osborna former trade union leader, decided to run as an independent candidate.

In a state where Republican victories are almost always a given, Nebraska is now one of those victories top Senate races to watch in the Nov. 5 election because its outcome could determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress.

A recent one New York Times/Siena College Survey puts Osborn just two percentage points behind Fischer, 46% to 48%, with 5% of likely voters in Nebraska either undecided or refusing to answer. Other political tracking organizations, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, updated the contest to “leaning” versus “firmly” Republican.

Osborn, a veteran of the U.S. Navy and Nebraska Army National Guard, has declined the endorsement of the state’s Democratic Party. Running as an independent candidate, his platform weaves together issues from both sides of the political aisle: he supports the Second Amendment, advocates for the protection of reproductive rights and wants to make it easier for unions to organize.

This race marks the Cornhusker native’s first foray into politics, which he says is one of his greatest strengths.

“It’s a story as old as time; if you can divide, you can conquer. Right now I feel like we’re pretty divided,” Osborn recently told a crowd gathered at his campaign office in Lincoln for an event highlighting his support from conservative Nebraskans.

“You can imagine the consequences if Nebraska elects an independent candidate; the whole country will say, ‘Holy crap.’ See what Nebraska did?” It will tell people across the country that you don’t have to be a self-financing crypto billionaire to run for office.”

In an election with historic political divisions, Osborn is marketing himself as a candidate with no loyalty to either party, often airing grievances about partisan gridlock and ineffectiveness on Capitol Hill.

One question keeping both parties on their toes is whether Osborn will work with either party in the Senate. When asked about this, Osborn points to former Sen. George Norris, I-Nebraska, who was the last independent to represent the state in 1942. Norris did not consult with either party and brought his nonpartisan character back to Nebraska, where he helped found the state’s unicameral legislature.

“We pride ourselves on being different from other people, but also independent,” said Elizabeth Theiss-Morse, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

From the center outwards

What was a relatively under-the-radar operation a few months ago, Fischer’s campaign has come out in full force to reinvigorate its Republican base, with millions in funding from national Republicans and the support of the former president . Donald Trump in her pocket.

The Republican Party is investing millions in the race to retain a Republican seat in the Senate, including a recent $3 million contribution from a super political action committee affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky. The cash infusion for her campaign has enabled a barrage of expensive television ads portraying Osborn as a Democrat in disguise.

“My opponent supports amnesty and welfare for illegal immigrants, and has said he loves Bernie Sanders — he is simply too left for our state,” Fischer said in a statement to USA TODAY.

“The people of Nebraska support me because I have delivered: from supporting border security and a strong national defense, to funding roads, bridges and airports, to helping make life easier for working families through my paid sick leave law. A conservative record that helped build Nebraska and keep America strong.”

Fischer has deep roots in greater Nebraska and a farming background in Valentine, a town on the state’s northern border. She has held a series of public offices in the state, including seats in the Nebraska Legislature and on the Valentine Rural High School Board of Education, and is now running for a third term.

On the other hand, Osborn is focused on courting voters in all political parties, but is currently targeting Fischer’s conservative base by highlighting his similarities with Trump.

“I tell people whether I’m in a room in Lincoln full of Democrats or in Hastings, Nebraska, in a room full of Republicans or mixed people, my message doesn’t change,” Osborn told USA TODAY. “That is that the Republicans are not the enemy, the Democrats are not the enemy, and the corporations are the enemy.”

In addition to fighting tooth and nail over portraying each other as insincere, the candidates’ focus on union support is also paramount in this race.

Fischer has expressed her support with unions across the state, including several police and fire organizations, as well as the Nebraska Farmers Union, which is backing several Democrats running for national office.

NFU President John Hansen defended Fischer, explaining that since her time in the state Legislature and as a member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, she has consistently prioritized the needs of farmers and ranchers in the state.

“Fischer is one of the few Republicans in Congress who is really willing to step up and try to build bipartisan support to get her legislation through and tie it to the Farm Bill,” Hansen said. “We know each other well. We have a good, working personal relationship.”

Osborn has the support of several unions and employee organizations, including the Nebraska AFL-CIO, United Auto Workers and Communications Workers of America and Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety.

One of the main reasons behind NRPS’s support of Osborn stems from the frustration they faced when they were unable to contact Fischer’s office during a labor battle with the state’s railroads in 2022, according to Mike Helmink, co-founder of the group. and treasurer.

“I think the race has received a lot of attention because it poses a serious threat,” Helmink said. “I don’t think Republicans saw this coming at all. They wanted to hope that it died, and that it just got bigger. It is a good candidate, a good message and there are so many connections with so many people.”

Reuters contributed to reporting on this story