Here's Who's Winning in the Latest Trump and Harris Presidential Polls — as Nate Silver, 538 Releases the Latest Predictions

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris trailed former President Donald Trump by the narrowest of margins in both polling guru Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s final presidential predictions shortly after midnight on Tuesday, though both projections showed the race for the White House statistically tied on Election Day stayed. as both candidates poll numbers deadlock remained in the key swing states.

Kamala Harris shakes hands with Donald Trump during a presidential debate in Philadelphia … (+) September 10.

AFP via Getty Images

Key facts

Silver let go of his final prediction after running 80,000 simulations of the race based on polling and finding that Harris had a 50.015% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 49.985% – essentially a tie – after a bit of a comeback by the Democrat, who had fallen by 44% to 55% in early November.

FiveThirtyEight too issued the final prediction for the winner of the presidential race, giving Harris the narrowest margin with a roughly 50% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 49%.

Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s predictions estimate the probability that either candidate will win, and are separate from polls, which estimate how much of the vote each candidate will receive — but many national and swing state polls also remain essentially the same.

Harris leads Trump 49%-48%, with likely voters in the latter HarrisX/Forbes Surveywhich was taken between Wednesday and Friday and has a margin of error of one point, and she is up 50%-48% in a Ipsos survey also out on Monday.

The widely followed Times/Siena poll released late last month represented a decline in support for Harris, as the newspaper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump — and the newspaper called the results “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats won the popular vote in the recent election, even though they lost the White House.

Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC poll of registered voters released on October 24 (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll on October 23 (margin of error 2.5) – a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a magazine survey.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, although her lead has narrowed over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted poll average.

Important reminder: Presidential polls have often been wrong

And there’s a lot of speculation about why they’re wrong this year – and who could benefit from it. Read all about it in this story.

Big number

1.2 points. That’s Harris’ average lead over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics poll average shows Harris leading by 0.1, and Nate Silver has Harris ahead by one point Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris perform against Trump in swing states?

Harris leads inside Michigan, Wisconsin And Pennsylvaniaand Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona And Nevadaaccording to FiveThirtyEight polling averages. That means Harris would win the Electoral College if polls from every swing state are completely accurate — but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising fact

A poll of NBC News The report released on September 29 showed that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is narrowing. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted September 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found that 54% supported Harris, compared with 40% who backed Trump and 6% who said they were unsure know who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than the lead Democratic candidates have had in the past, including a 36-point lead in 2020 polls and a lead of 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

How has the debate affected the polls?

Pre-debate surveys showed Harris’ poll rise appeared to be stalling, including an NPR/PBS/Marist questionnaire of registered voters from September 3 to 5, showing Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, compared to a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters in each demographic group gave positive reviews of Harris’ debate performance on September 10, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris rose 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in a ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days after the debate on September 11 and 13, essentially unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters in end of August And early August ABC/Ipsos polls – even though 63% of Americans are said Harris had won the debate.

Important background

Biden fell out from the race on July 21 after weeks of resisting calls from within his own party to end his re-election bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed She and Harris announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her during a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls has been accompanied by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which is indeed the case almost doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained stagnant at 71%, according to a Monmouth University poll released on August 14.

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