€25 per pack: is the price increase really stopping people from smoking?

A social affairs committee of the French Senate has published a report on how taxation can guide the French population towards a healthier lifestyle.

Published last week, one of the key themes of the publication is smoking, a habit linked to more than 73,000 preventable deaths in France per year.

To combat this trend, the Committee suggested that the price of cigarettes be increased by 5% per year until 2040.

If inflation is 1.75%, this equates to an annual increase of 3.25%.

Estimates suggest that the recommended tax increase could bring in around 14 billion euros per year to the French state.

Cigarette prices in the EU

If passed, the Senate proposal would mean a pack of cigarettes costing 12 euros today would cost 25 euros in 2025 – a total more in line with costs seen in countries like Australia and New Zealand.

However, the price of cigarettes is already relatively high in France compared to its European neighbors.

Citing the cheapest brand on the market, it costs around 8.95 euros to buy a pack of 20 cigarettes in France in 2020, according to the most recent WHO data.

After adjusting for purchasing parity in the EU, this price was only exceeded in Ireland.

If we include the UK, UK and Northern Ireland customers paid even more – with the cheapest 12-pack costing around £9.30.

For premium cigarette brands, the ranking remained essentially the same. UK customers saw the highest prices, followed by Ireland and then France.

Advertising bans and other campaigns

This new price increase could be the last in a series of measures put in place by the French government to fight against smoking.

In 2018, former Minister of Health Agnès Buzyn announced a project aimed at gradually increasing the price of a pack of cigarettes to 10 euros.

Before that, France had imposed restrictions on smoking in public places and banned cigarette advertising, notably through the Veil law of 1976 and the Evin law of 1991.

According to the WHO, increasing the price of cigarettes is “the most effective and cost-effective measure to reduce tobacco consumption”.

However, the proportion of smokers in France has stabilized in recent years.

OECD figures suggest that the proportion of daily smokers has fallen from 30% in 2000 to 25.5% in 2020.

This drop of 4.5% is lower than the development observed in other countries. The UK saw a reduction of 12.5%, while Germany and Spain saw declines of 9.1% and 12.3% respectively.

Some groups also worry about the effects of rising prices on cigarette smuggling.

Last year, nearly 503 tonnes of illicit tobacco were seized by French border police as of December 1, according to government figures.