Iran’s big question about the US election: Will Trump or Harris pursue diplomacy? | News about the 2024 US elections

Tehran, Iran – When the United States elects its president, the impact of their choice is felt around the world, and few countries are as directly affected as Iran.

But as the U.S. votes Tuesday in an election that will pit Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck-and-neck, Iran is grappling with a particularly challenging reality, analysts say, according to the latest polls: Tensions with Washington appear poised to boil over. to remain sky-high no matter who ends up in the White House.

Democrat Harris and Republican Trump are seeking the presidency at a time when a third major Iranian attack on Israel appears all but certain and concerns about an all-out regional war persist.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has promised a “crushing” response to Israel in retaliation for its first-ever airstrikes on Tehran and several other provinces on October 26.

Commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are suggesting that their next action against Israel – which is expected to involve the Iranian army after four army soldiers were killed by Israeli bombs – will involve more advanced projectiles.

Against this backdrop, both US presidential candidates have expressed tough stances on Tehran. Harris last month called Iran the US’s “greatest adversary”, while Trump advocated that Israel attack Iranian nuclear facilities.

At the same time, both have indicated their willingness to work diplomatically with Iran.

Speaking to reporters in New York in September, Trump said he was open to resuming negotiations on a nuclear deal. “We have to make a deal because the consequences are impossible. We have to make a deal,” he said.

Harris has also previously supported a return to nuclear talks, although her tone toward Iran has hardened recently.

According to Tehran-based political analyst Diako Hosseini, the big question for Iran amid all this is which of the two presidential candidates may be better prepared to manage tensions.

“Trump offers excessive support to Israel, while Harris is deeply committed to the mainstream US agenda against Iran,” he told Al Jazeera.

History of tensions

The history of the two candidates will also have a major impact on their potential future relations with Tehran.

A year after becoming president in 2017, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, imposing the toughest US sanctions ever on Iran, covering its entire economy.

He also ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s top general and second most powerful man after the supreme leader. Soleimani, the commander-in-chief of the IRGC’s Quds Force, was killed by a US drone in Iraq along with a senior Iraqi commander in January 2020.

After taking office in January 2021, current US President Joe Biden and Harris continued to enforce Trump’s sanctions, including during the years when Iran was dealing with the deadliest outbreak of COVID-19 in the Middle East, involving almost 150,000 people.

The Biden administration has also significantly expanded these sanctions, blacklisting many dozens more individuals and entities with the stated goal of targeting Iranian exports, limiting military capabilities, and punishing human rights abuses.

Following an Iranian missile attack on Israel last month, Washington expanded sanctions on Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors to negatively impact crude oil exports to China, which had recovered and grown in recent years despite the sanctions.

Trump has claimed he will stifle resilient Iranian exports through better sanctions enforcement.

“Pursuing diplomacy with Trump is much more difficult for Iran because of the assassination of General Soleimani, but it is not impossible,” Hosseini said.

“However, if a potential Harris administration is willing, Iran would not face major obstacles to direct bilateral talks. Nevertheless, Iran is well and realistically aware that regardless of who takes over the White House as president, diplomacy with Washington is now significantly more difficult than ever before.”

Since the US withdrawal from the landmark nuclear deal, all dialogue with the US – including the failed attempts to revive the comatose nuclear deal and a prisoner exchange deal last year – has been conducted indirectly and through intermediaries such as Qatar and Oman.

‘Tactics can change’

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government, made up of representatives from reformist to hardline political factions within the Iranian establishment, has sought to strike a tone of both moderation and strength.

Pezeshkian said in a speech on Monday that Iran is engaged in a “total economic war” and that it must counter its adversaries by boosting the local economy. He has also repeatedly said he wants to work toward lifting sanctions and is open to talks with the West.

“It is strange that the Zionist regime and its supporters continue to make claims about human rights. Violence, genocide, crimes and murder are behind their seemingly neat facade and ties,” the president said during his final speech.

Speaking to state television on Monday evening, Iran’s top diplomat said Tehran “doesn’t attach much importance” to who wins the US presidential race.

“The country’s main strategies will not be affected by these things. Tactics may change and things may be accelerated or postponed, but we will never compromise on our founding principles and objectives,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.

Araghchi traveled to Pakistan’s capital Islamabad on Tuesday, where he discussed “threats from the Zionist regime and the regional crisis” with top officials including army chief General Asim Munir.

The IRGC continues to conduct a large-scale military operation in the southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, where several armed attacks have recently taken place by a separatist group that Iran says is backed by Israel.

The Jaish al-Adl group killed 10 members of the Iranian armed forces in the province on October 26 in an attack condemned by the United Nations Security Council as a “heinous and cowardly terrorist attack”.

Since the attack, the IRGC said it has killed eight members of the group and arrested 14.