Prepare to wait a while for the final election results

As I write this, Americans are trudging to the polls to mark ovals on paper, touch screens, use voting machines and otherwise determine their choices for president, Congress, state legislatures and a host of other offices and ballot measures. lay. All around 78 million Americans casting votes before election day, often by post. Different systems are used depending on each state’s preference, and rules vary on when ballots can be counted and how they are recounted if necessary. If that sounds like it complicates vote counting, you’re right. That’s why we’ll probably all have to be a little more patient before the results of this year’s elections become final.

A two-week delay for votes from One Key County

“The outcome of the presidential race could depend on Maricopa County, and election officials warn it could take nearly two weeks to count all the votes,” says Phoenix’s CBS affiliate. reported last week. “With more than 2.5 million active voters, Maricopa County is the third-largest voting precinct in the country and one of the most hotly contested areas in the race for the White House. The province expects it will take 10 to 13 days to count all eligible voters. the votes, which is consistent with previous years.”

Arizona is a swing state that was taken over by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 less than 11,000 votes. So with 2.5 million from the state 4.368 million voters in one county that has already been warned that counting ballots will take a while, we could all be waiting a while for some pretty important election results.

Or perhaps Americans will have to wait for Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania or one of the other swing states. Even if the presidential contest is decided relatively quickly, control of Congress could remain up in the air as we await the outcome of the election. few House races actually in play.

Voting procedures vary from country to country

How votes are cast, processed and counted varies from state to state – and even between jurisdictions within some states. According to Verified votethat promotes “the responsible use of technology in elections,” 69.9 percent of American voters live in jurisdictions that use hand-marked paper ballots. Another 25.1 percent use voting machines that electronically present options to voters and then print human-readable paper ballots that are tallied. Five percent use electronic direct recording systems that are completely digital, with results stored in computer memory.

While 78 million ballots released before Election Day does not mean they have already been counted. Some states, including Arizona, count them as they arrive, according to to the National Conference of State Legislatures, although the results must be kept secret under penalty of law. Those ballots can be cast at polling places or by mail, especially in California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont and Washington, where: Ballotpedia notesmail-in ballots are the primary means of voting. However, in other states, including swing states like Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, counting cannot begin until Election Day. Early voting in those states makes it easier for voters, but not necessarily for election workers.

So Maricopa County’s delay is not the result of a mountain of early-filed ballots, but of a particularly long 2024 ballot and the laborious process of processing and verifying “early” ballots that are held until the last minute and then dropped off . on election day.

There may be a lot of those last-minute, not-so-early votes because voting is difficult this year. North of Maricopa, in Yavapai County, I counted thirteen ballots statewide, in addition to the various federal, state and local offices. We also have a local measure in place, as do other jurisdictions in the state. The What is on my ballot? “brochure” looks like an old-fashioned phone book.

“I thought it might take some time” to fill out, Sophia Tesch told The Washington Post about the vote in Arizona. “It took me 35 minutes.”

The long ballot consists of two pages, which must be entered separately into a table in order to be counted. The machine may freeze if it is fed too quickly. That requires extra time and patience.

Mail-in ballots are easier to cast than to count

Now imagine this scenario playing out across the country, especially if voting is by mail become more popular. While early voting from home makes life much easier for voters, especially if the ballot resembles a Scantron test form, it adds complexity on the receiving end.

“Ballot counting takes longer because the process involves additional layers of processing and verification that in some states may not begin until Election Day,” Time‘s Simmone Shah wrote in the run-up to the elections. “The ballots themselves must be unsealed, and verification sometimes involves matching a signature or photo ID.”

Moreover, some states including Nevadaaccept ballots that are postmark by election day. That means the ballots may not all be counted until the end of the week. That shouldn’t add any extra tension to what is already a political season of cliffhangers, right?

Stories can keep the fun going

Then, of course, there’s the fact that this presidential election is as close to a 50/50 race as you’ll ever see between political candidates, and some of the down-ballot races are tight as well. Many states have a vending machine retell laws if the vote totals are within a narrow margin (0.5 percent in Arizona And Pennsylvania). In other states, candidates can request recounts if the margin is small (0.5 percent in Georgia1 percent in North Carolina).

With partiality tensions boiling point high in the United States, we can assume that no one will miss an opportunity to demand recounts in races where voting tallies are close and outcomes may depend on the interpretation of disputed ballots. This is especially likely given that confidence in electoral procedures is questionable. About 60 percent of Americans “have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence that ballots cast in the presidential election will be accurately counted in their state or by their local election officials.” according to to AP-NORC. That drops to 48 percent for the national count.

That said, perhaps the polls have been wrong, and this election will be decided by such overwhelming margins that lagging numbers in some areas won’t matter. Then the recounts will be completely irrelevant. Clear victories can resolve questions about who wins, who loses and who gets to hold office.

But chances are we’ll all have to wait a while to see how this election turns out.