Texas vs. Florida Football Prediction: What the Analytics Say

SEC football kicks off this weekend as No. 5 Texas returns home against Florida. Let’s take a look at the latest matchup prediction from an analytical model that simulates games.

Texas beat Vanderbilt by three points heading into the bye two weeks ago and is looking to build some momentum in SEC play after the loss to Georgia and as the playoff selection draws closer.

Florida had Georgia on the ropes for a while last week, tying that game in the fourth quarter before allowing two late touchdowns to fall to 4-4 heading into the second of four games against top-ranked opponents to finish the season to close.

Looking ahead to this week’s game, let’s take a look at the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on an expected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the models strongly favor the Longhorns over the Gators.

Texas emerged as the big favorite at home, taking the lead by an overwhelming margin 90.9 percent of the latest computer simulations of the game.

This leaves Florida as the likely winner in the remaining series 9.1 percent from sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the matchup?

The expectation is that Texas will be 20.4 points better then Florida on the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the model’s latest prediction.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Longhorns to cover the spread against the Gators.

That’s because Texas has a 21.5 points favorite against Florida, according to the updated rules on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (over -105, under -115).

And it set up the moneyline opportunities for Texas -2500 and for Florida +1160 to win outright.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Gators to keep things closer to the Longhorns, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Florida gets 53 percent of betting to win immediately in the event of a setback, or to keep the final margin at three touchdowns or less in the event of a loss.

The other 47 percent of bettors expect Texas to win the game and cover the spread.

Texas ranks second among SEC teams with one 78.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

That model gives the Longhorns an overall earnings forecast of 10.8 games this season.

Georgia (92.6%) leads the SEC in odds to make the 12-team playoffs.

Florida is expected to win 5.5 games this season, and has a 48.8 percent chance to qualify for bowling.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer forecasting models are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and score predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and matches, using a combination of key analytics including year-to-date scores, opponent quality, team talent, recruiting and a team’s schedule .

Teams are not ranked by talent as in other rankings, but based on an expected points margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First place votes in brackets

Oregon (62)
Georgia
State of Ohio
Miami
Texas
Penn State
Tennessee
Indiana
BYU
Notre Dame
Alabama
Boise State
SMU
LSU
Texas A&M
Ole ma’am
The state of Iowa
Army
Clemson
Washington State
Colorado
State of Kansas
Pittsburgh
Vanderbilt
Louisville

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 12:00 PM ET | 11am CT
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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