Rafael becomes the eleventh hurricane of the season

Rafael is a hurricane. Sustained winds will reach 120 km/h with gusts up to 130 km/h. The central pressure has dropped to 986 MB. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the western side of Cuba, with hurricane conditions expected Wednesday. Some weakening is expected as the storm passes over Cuba.

The stronger Rafael pushes into the Gulf, the greater the chance that a hurricane will hit the US. The current forecast shows a weakening trend back to a tropical storm before it reaches Louisiana, thanks to drier air and stronger upper-level winds. No consequences for ENC are expected.

It is rare for a tropical storm or hurricane to hit ENC this late in the season. In the past thirty years, only Hurricane Eta (2020) and Hurricane Gordon (1994) have come within 200 miles of our coastline in November. As for the hurricanes making landfall in the US in November, this has only happened four times in the past 170 years. Three of these were in Florida: Nicole in 2022, Kate in 1985 and Yankee in 1935. The fourth was Expedition, which hit North Carolina in 1861.

More development is possible in the southwestern Atlantic and northern Caribbean as another tropical wave approaches. The odds continue to rise slowly, but are still low for now.

For continued updates on the 2024 hurricane season, download the free WITN First Alert Weather app, available in both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. It’s the fastest way to get the latest advisories, track storms in real time, and receive any warnings for your region.