Ukraine-Russia peace conference without Moscow in the room is more spectacle than content

More than 90 countries attending a weekend conference aimed at developing a peace plan for Ukraine suggested its ambition was realistic. But it was an outright misreading. Because one crucial country was not invited: Russia. International mediators won’t get far without first bringing Ukraine and Russia to the same negotiating table.

Western priority | This conference in Switzerland was preceded by a commitment from the G7 in favor of a new loan of 50 billion dollars for Ukraine, securitized by interest on the frozen assets of the Russian central bank. The architect of this plan, US Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, says it is “about getting Russia to help pay for the damage it has caused.” This is an entirely different goal from a ceasefire or peace.

Russian Maximalism | Even less ambitious goals – from food security to the return of Ukrainian children – cannot be achieved without negotiations with Russia itself. The big stumbling block, of course, is “today’s realities,” which are the prerequisite for Putin’s negotiation. He wants to retain Ukrainian territory gained through incremental advances on the battlefield, and much more. Such maximalism has been underpinned by the surprising resilience shown by both the Russian military and economy. And now an additional factor is calculating that he will get a better deal by waiting until Trump is president of the United States.

Common ground | A March opinion poll found that Ukrainians under 35 are the most pessimistic about victory and the most willing to accept limited results from the war. Two years of death and destruction later, the bitter truth is actually the same for Zelensky and Putin. The fact is that victory remains uncertain, both for Ukraine and for Russia. This is what international diplomacy must rely on. A shared truth provides more fertile ground for compromise than an unshared conference.

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