China is almost ready for its war with the West

As Russian forces continued their advance toward Kharkiv this weekend, world leaders visited the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock to try to determine what a peace deal should look like. Vladimir Putin, predictably, had no interest in attending, but the absence of another world leader was more significant. Even as the United States prepares to focus its military attention on the Indo-Pacific to confront an increasingly assertive China, Xi Jinping has chosen not to attend.

Admiral Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, recently declared his intention to turn the Taiwan Strait “into an unmanned hellscape” to buy time in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The idea was to use “classified capabilities” – likely including surface ships and long-endurance drones – to make the lives of Chinese soldiers “completely miserable for a month”.

Meanwhile, the concern is that while the United States is developing combat capabilities in the region, China is building ships at a breakneck pace. Paparo has previously noted that while the United States “is not outmatched,” he doesn’t like “the pace of its trajectory.”

With Europe distracted by Russia’s war in Ukraine and U.S. assets diverted by unrest in the Middle East, the Chinese Communist Party may have its best chance of waging a successful war of conquest. Xi’s deadline of 2027 for the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan will likely fall into a period of geopolitical chaos elsewhere.

In other words, it is not surprising that Xi is not interested in this weekend’s peace conference. Keeping an increasingly politically fractured and economically war-hesitant Europe binds Washington by extension and liberates China in the Indo-Pacific.

If we are to avoid adding a third element to our list of global conflicts, Europe will have to intervene. Right now, far too much of the burden falls on the United States, even though – at least on paper – European NATO members and the European Union can and should be able to foot the bill and to provide the weapons necessary for Ukraine’s fight for freedom.

Washington knows that it has become increasingly dispersed and that this situation cannot continue indefinitely. If it is split between supporting European countries that are not prepared to commit financially to the security of their own continent and the Indo-Pacific when China’s war preparations turn into reality, then it is at serious risk of losing a great power war for the first time.