How the trade deadline affected the NFC Super Bowl participants

The N.F.L The trade deadline was Tuesday and a handful of players found new homes before the second half of the regular season began.

Two NFC candidates made all-in moves that could change their fortunes in a conference that looks wide open.

Let’s break down the moves and prospects for each team.

Detroit Lions acquire DE Za’Darius Smith

According to FTN’s Aaron Schatz, only nine teams since 1979 have ranked in the top five in DVOA in all three phases after Week 8 of the season.

Six of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl.

The Lions are the ninth team.

Detroit is a clear candidate at the highest level. My only concern, however, was the team’s pass rush after losing Defensive Player of the Year, leader Aidan Hutchinson from a season-ending leg injury.

According to TruMedia, the Lions had a 53% pressure rate and five sacks through the first six weeks of the season. Since Hutchinson’s injury, pressure has dropped to 21%.

Recognizing this shortage, Detroit’s front office acquired edge rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns for a choice change on day 3.

Aidan Hutchinson is out for Detroit. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Smith isn’t close to being a one-on-one replacement for Hutchinson. According to TruMedia, he has a pressure rate of 13.9% this season, while Hutchinson had an excellent rate of 25%. Hutchinson still ranks fourth in the NFL with 45 total pressures and he did that in just five games.

However, Smith can be a valuable part of the Lions’ pass rush.

There isn’t much value in the Lions winning the Super Bowl at +480 odds BetMGM or to claim the NFC North at -250 odds.

Detroit has everything it needs to win a title this year, and if their championship streak extends at any point after a loss, I’d be interested in buying.

Washington Commanders acquire CB Marshon Lattimore

First-year head coach Dan Quinn deserves tremendous credit for turning around the Commanders’ defense.

Washington ranked last in EPA per Play Allowed for the first four weeks of the year. As of Week 5, they rank eighth, including third in the EPA per pass allowed.

Marshon Lattimore should bully a bad secondary commander. AP

One major change Quinn made was moving rookie Mike Sainristill to the perimeter, replacing Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who is ranked 199th out of 205 qualified corners in Pro Football Focus’ classes.

However, Sainristill fits more comfortably in the slot, and this move to Taking over Marshon Lattimore allowing him to operate indoors more often.

Lattimore ranks 25th out of 117 qualified corners in PFF’s coverage grades, and he hasn’t allowed a touchdown in single coverage since the 2021 season.

He can shadow opponents’ best wide receivers if Quinn deems it necessary based on the matchup, and he will close down his side of the field more often than not.

The Commanders’ run defense is still shaky — they rank last in line yards allowed to running backs, according to FTN.

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However, with a much-improved secondary coupled with the fourth-ranked pass rush according to ESPN’s winning percentage stats, this defense is trending toward pairing with an offense that is performing at an elite level with rookie Jayden Daniels.

Washington ranks 29th in strength of schedule facing DVOA, and four of their final eight games will be against teams with winning records.

Two dates with the Eagles seem big for this team’s chances of winning the NFC East (+110 odds).

The Commanders are priced at 22/1 to win the Super Bowl FanDuel and I can’t blame you for taking a kite at that price.

Why trust New York Post betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He is up 84.5 units in the two sports with an ROI of 6.27%.