Trump’s victory is a tragic loss for climate progress

The US election could also cause global ripples, and very quickly. US negotiators will meet their counterparts at the annual UN climate conference starting next week. Now that Trump will move back to the White House in January, that will be the case little credibility or influence to push other countries to step up their emissions reduction commitments.

But these are just some of the immediate ways in which a second Trump administration will weaken the nation’s ability to reduce emissions and confront the growing dangers of climate change. He also has significant power to grind the economy to a halt and sow international chaos amid a moment of escalating conflict in Europe and the Middle East.

Trump’s eagerness to determine rates, reduce government expenditureAnd deport large parts of the labor force can hinder growth, increase inflation and slow down investment. All of that would make it much harder for companies to raise capital and buy the components needed to build anything in the U.S., whether wind turbines, solar farms and seawalls, or buildings, bridges and data centers.

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Its clumsy handling of the economy and international affairs could also help China expand its dominance in the production and sale of the components of the energy transition, including batteries, electric vehicles and solar panels, to customers around the world.

If one job of a commentator is to find some perspective in difficult moments, I admit that I usually fail at this.

The best I can do is say there will be some meaningful lines of defense. For now, at least, state leaders and lawmakers can continue to enact and implement stricter climate regulations. Other countries could step up their efforts to reduce emissions and assert themselves as global climate leaders.

The private sector will likely continue to invest and build businesses in climate technology and clean energy, as solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles have proven themselves as competitive industries. And technological advances can happen no matter who sits in the round room on Pennsylvania Avenue, as researchers continue to strive for cleaner, cheaper ways to produce our energy, food and goods.

In any case, tackling climate change is now much more difficult. However, nothing has changed in the stakes.

Our world will not end if we exceed 2˚C, 2.5˚C or even 3˚C, but it will become increasingly dangerous and erratic. Every tenth of a degree remains worth fighting for – whether in two, four or twelve years – because every bit of warming that countries come together to prevent will alleviate future suffering somewhere.

So as the shock subsides and the despair begins to subside, the core task ahead remains the same: pushing for progress wherever, whenever and however we can.