Four years makes a big difference for Donald Trump

Four years ago, Fox News sparked an internal crisis with a bold election night call that President Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump in the crucial state of Arizona. This year illustrated the difference four years can make.

Fox News wasn’t the first network to declare early Wednesday that Trump had sealed his victory over Kamala Harris — upstart NewsNation, conservative rival Newsmax and Scripps Networks led the way — but its ultimate call came nearly four hours before ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC and The Associated Press made theirs.

Judging from the cheers that erupted when Fox’s call was shown to the Trump faithful gathered at his victory party in West Palm Beach, it was a decision that was certainly much better received by viewers than the 2020 call.

“If you don’t like the taste of the cake, you won’t like the recipe,” said Chris Stirewalt, political editor at NewsNation. “If you love the cake, you’ll love the recipe.”

Trump and Fox can both claim a comeback on election night

Fox’s Bret Baier called Trump’s victory “the biggest political phoenix from the ashes we’ve ever seen,” and Fox can lay claim to a comeback of its own.

Fox’s Arizona call in 2020 infuriated Trump and many of the network’s viewers. Although it ultimately turned out to be correct, things did get moving raging internal doubts and led some Fox personalities to embrace conspiracy theories ultimately costs the network as much as $787 million to settle a defamation lawsuit by Dominion Voting Systems.

NewsNation, using information from election forecasting firm Decision Desk HQ, called at 1:22 a.m. Wednesday. Scripps and Newsmax, which also use DDHQ, made the same statement within a minute.

Around that time, Baier said that “we’re not there yet” but noted that there was no path to victory for Harris. Fox made his call at 1:47

The AP called the election for Trump at 5:34 am. ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and the AP all made their calls within moments of each other. The AP explained his statement which Trump won came after Wisconsin was awarded to the former president by ruling that the remaining uncounted votes from the Milwaukee area would not be enough for Harris to overcome Trump’s lead there.

For NewsNation’s Stirewalt, his network’s early call Wednesday provided a rich irony. He was political editor at Fox News in 2020 and he and a colleague, Bill Sammon, were actually fired after the outrage over the call in Arizona – even though they were proven right.

“It would be easy to overstate the results and I want to be careful not to do that,” he said. “I will say this: It is a victory for the way things used to be done and a personal vindication.”

Let the numbers speak

He said Decision Desk HQ and NewsNation let the numbers speak for themselves during their conversations. He would not criticize rivals for waiting longer, saying it was a natural reaction to be cautious when making race calls after what happened in 2020.

Some viewers’ happiness at Fox’s call was evident for some posts on social media. Fox rejects any suggestion that his calls are politically motivated and that his decision-making agency is run by veteran Arnon Mishkinis widely respected in the industry. Stirewalt called Mishkin “fantastic” and said, “It’s to Fox’s credit that they kept him when they didn’t keep Bill Sammon and me.”

A powerful conservative media ecosystem has been built in recent years to compete with Fox. But the network remains king of the hill, illustrated again Wednesday by the Nielsen company’s preliminary ratings on its election night television coverage.

Fox averaged 9.7 million viewers for its coverage in the primetime hours, well above second-place ABC News, which had 5.7 million. Newsmax, Fox’s main rival for conservative viewers, had 947,000 viewers and NewsNation had 237,000, Nielsen said.

“I am extremely proud of our team’s commitment to delivering top reporting and analysis to the largest and most politically diverse news audience,” Fox News Media CEO Suzanne Scott said of Tuesday night’s ratings, the network said.

Trump’s complicated relationship with the network is also a testament to his continued influence. The Republican candidate was a regular guest on his shows during the campaign, especially the morning “Fox & Friends,” as well complains bitterly on social media if he doesn’t like something said there.

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David Bauder writes about media for the AP. Follow him up http://x.com/dbauder.