Justin Trudeau suffers shock defeat in by-election in Liberal stronghold

The defeat at St Paul’s is likely to spark discussion within the Liberal Party over his leadership.

Fred DeLorey, a former Conservative campaign manager, said Monday that the byelection could end up being “Trudeau’s last stand.”

A defeat means that Liberal MPs “who all know their jobs are on the line a year from now are going to start speaking out not only internally but also externally,” he told the broadcasters, according to Politico.

According to 338Canada projections, the Conservatives would win 209 seats if an election had been held on June 23 – which is well short of the 172 seats needed to obtain a majority – while the Liberals would fall to 70.

The Liberals have less than a 1 percent chance of forming a majority or minority government after the next election, he predicts.

Minimized result

Nevertheless, Liberal sources downplayed the significance of the St Paul’s result, arguing that a by-election could not be applied to a general election.

“If you have (a single race) in the summer, during an Oilers (hockey) game, during everything that’s going on, there’s always an element of unpredictability when you look at the turnout, when you look at the ability to attract people. at the polls,” said Stevie O’Brien, former chief of staff to Liberal ministers.

Despite his waning popularity, Mr. Trudeau is expected to seek a fourth term in the 2025 election – a feat only two prime ministers have ever achieved.

None of Mr. Trudeau’s potential replacements would significantly influence voters in favor of the Liberals, according to a study by the polling firm Angus Reid released Monday.

The study also reveals that Canadians are very concerned about the government’s lack of progress on issues such as housing and the cost of living.

A May study concluded that Canada was suffering one of the worst declines in living standards in 40 years and had one of the lowest recent growth rates in the G7.

The Fraser Institute found that between mid-2019 and the end of 2023, GDP per person fell by 3% when adjusted for inflation, from $59,905 (£34,625) to $58,111.