East Africa Key Message Update: Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) expected in areas most affected by conflict, drought and floods through September (May 2024) – Sudan

Key messages

• In May, humanitarian needs increased in several regions of East Africa, due to intensifying conflicts, flooding and the lasting effects of the 2020-2023 drought in the Horn of Africa. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to be widespread in affected areas. In parts of South Sudan, Sudan and Ethiopia, some households are expected to face disaster (IPC Phase 5) – including severe acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality – with a risk of famine (IPC Phase 5) assessed in parts of Sudan and South Sudan. In Tigray, if current levels of food aid and social support decline or are disrupted, more extreme outcomes could occur. However, in most areas, above-average rainfall from March to May improved crop and livestock productivity, increasing food access and income opportunities and improving food security outcomes.
• In EthiopiaThe lean season is expected to peak from June to September, during which time the population in need is expected to increase. Ongoing and planned large-scale humanitarian food assistance is helping to avert worse outcomes in areas of the country previously affected by conflict and drought, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes most likely through September. However, in some areas where humanitarian food assistance is not significant, households are expected to face moderate to extreme difficulties in accessing food and income to purchase food, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected. More extreme outcomes could occur in Tigray if humanitarian food assistance and social support are not maintained or interrupted for an extended period until the harvest in October.
• In Somalia, due to the combined effects of deir 2023 and gu 2024 floods in the south, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in the most affected riverine areas of Gedo and Middle Shabelle regions. In most pastoral and agropastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through September. Improved livestock production and births are supporting increased access to income for most pastoralists, although central areas continue to grapple with the impacts of the 2020-2023 drought. Meanwhile, the gu The 2024 main harvest is now expected to be below average following flooding and erratic rains in May. Displaced people are expected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) situations due to limited income and reduced humanitarian assistance. In Kenya, Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in marginal pastoral and agricultural areas due to average cumulative rainfall during the long rainy season from March to May, improving livestock and crop production, increasing food availability and leading to a seasonal decline in the prices of basic foodstuffs. However, in flood-affected areas, particularly Garissa, Tana River and Mandera counties, households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) consequences due to damage to crops and infrastructure and travel.
• In Sudan, the escalation of fighting for over 13 months between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on several fronts has led to deteriorating food security outcomes and increased humanitarian needs, with approximately 10 million people internally displaced by the end of the year. Can. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are widespread in Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, Khartoum, Al Jazirah, Kassala and parts of the southeast. The number of people facing a disaster (IPC Phase 5) is expected to increase towards the peak of the lean season (August/September) in areas with a high concentration of displaced people and in hard-to-reach households affected by the conflict in Greater Darfur. particularly around El Fasher in besieged North Darfur, as well as parts of South Kordofan and Khartoum. A risk of famine (IPC Phase 5) is assessed in these areas, as fighting and siege continue to restrict trade and human movements, disrupt livelihoods, and interfere with humanitarian access.
• In South Sudan, humanitarian needs increase as the lean season approaches, accelerated by the deterioration of economic conditions due to significant losses of oil revenues, conflicts, the heavy burden of returnees, the early depletion of food stocks, high food prices and disruptions to humanitarian aid. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in 28 counties, while Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes are expected in Pibor and Aweil East counties and among returnee households without assets, with limited adaptive capacity and few social connections. While the fuel tax has reportedly been removed for humanitarian operations, food aid distributions continue to be disrupted by the pause in UNHAS airdrops, as well as insecurity, logistical constraints and the increased transport costs. Accordingly, FEWS NET assesses that food aid to priority counties including Twic East of Jonglei, Koch and Mayendit of Unity; Kapoeta in northern Eastern Equatoria and Ulang in Upper Nile will not be enough to mitigate the worst outcomes with these areas classified as Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in May. Given forecasts of severe flooding worse than 2020 and expectations of sporadic conflict, a risk of famine is assessed in parts of north-central Unity and Upper Nile between June and September, particularly in areas where the number of returnees without assets is high. and little ability to adapt.
• In Uganda, below-average and erratic rains from March to May are expected to result in below-average first season crop production, particularly in northwestern Uganda. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are now expected between June and September in parts of the north and west. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Karamoja and refugee camps due to insufficient access to food and income and reduced food rations among refugees due to of the financing gap. In Burundi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the Northern Lowlands, Eastern Lowlands, and Eastern Dry Highlands livelihood zones, due to high food prices, below-average cross-border income opportunities, and below-average 2024 Season A harvests. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist among refugees and asylum seekers, although humanitarian needs are expected to outstrip the provision of food assistance and needs are expected to increase due to flood/landslide-related displacement and an expected increase in the number of returnees.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. East Africa Key Messages Update, May 2024: Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Disaster (IPC Phase 5) expected in areas most affected by conflict , drought and floods until September 2024.