Miami vs. Miami Georgia Tech score prediction by expert model

ACC football kicks off this weekend as No. 4 Miami goes on the road against Georgia Tech looking to remain undefeated. Let’s take a look at the latest pre-match prediction from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Miami remains perfect and atop the ACC rankings behind the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense and third-ranked passing attack, but will face pressure from resurgent SMU in the conference title picture.

Georgia Tech has dropped two straight games and three of its last five, falling to 3-3 in ACC play and faces a tough final three games, in addition to the fact that this game has to look to close against Georgia, making that two top matches four ranked teams in the last three weeks.

What do the analytics models suggest when the Hurricanes and Yellow Jackets meet in this ACC clash?

Before that, let’s take a look at the SP+ prediction model to get a taste of how Miami and Georgia Tech stack up in this Week 11 college football matchup.

As expected, the models are siding with the Hurricanes over the Ramblin’ wreck this week.

SP+ predicts Miami will beat Georgia Tech with a expected score from 40 to 22 and to win the game with one expected margin of 17.4 points.

The model gives the Hurricanes a strong one 86 percent chance of victory.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? Year to date, the SP+ model is 262-244-7 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) this past weekend.

Miami is one 10.5 point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to updated rules posted on FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 63.5 points for the game (over -110, under -110).

And it set up the moneyline odds for Miami -400 and for Georgia Tech on +310 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you must take into account…

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, who predict the Hurricanes will dominate the Yellow Jackets, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the game.

Miami gets 63 percent number of bets to win the game and cover the spread by double digits.

The other 37 percent of bets, the Georgia Tech project will either win outright on a setback or, more likely, keep the game at 10 points or less if they lose.

Miami ranks seventh nationally with a plus-22.1 point differential per game this season, while Georgia Tech has averaged 0.6 points worse than opponents in general.

Those margins have changed over the past three games as Miami has played closer games on average 17 points better than the competition, while Tech has been 8.7 points worse.

But the teams are evenly matched based on location: Miami is 16.8 points better than teams that play on the road and Georgia Tech is 16.5 points better when you are at home.

Miami ranks third nationally with 0.624 points per game average this season, while Georgia Tech ranks 77th in allowing 0.393 points per game.

Offensively, the Yellow Jackets rank 87th in FBS 0.344 points per game while the Hurricanes allow teams to average 0.375 points per gameRanked 69th nationally.

Most other analytical models also heavily favor the Hurricanes over the Yellow Jackets.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Miami is expected to win the match in the majority 76.8 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining bracket 23.2 percent from sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Miami is expected to be the same 10.8 points better then Georgia Tech on the same field in the current composition of both teams, according to the model’s latest prediction.

Miami ranks first among ACC teams with a 90.4 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

That model gives the Hurricanes a total win projection of 12.2 games this season.

Georgia Tech is not in the play-offs this season, but according to the index’s calculations it has a chance to reach the postseason.

FPI projects the Yellow Jackets will play in a bowl game 80.9 percent probability.

And it expects Tech to win 6.1 games in ’24.

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 12:00 Eastern
TV: ESPN Network

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The game odds are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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