Mets would be wise to consider a contract extension at the Braves for a budding star

Not only do the Atlanta Braves have one of the best, if not the best, rosters in the major leagues, but they’re also poised to remain at the top for years to come. With the exception of Max Fried and Marcell Ozuna, virtually every key member of their core is under team control through 2026. If that seems unprecedented, that’s because it is.

Alex Anthopoulos has done a masterful job of extending his players’ contracts, which has proven to be very beneficial for the team. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies are perfect examples. Both Acuña and Albies got long-term security with guaranteed generational wealth, and the Braves locked them up in significantly smaller amounts than they would have been able to get had they waited.

Having their core locked into such cheap extensions allowed the Braves to field an incredibly talented team with room to add, as they did this offseason with the Chris Sale trade.

Other teams should take a leaf out of Atlanta’s book. The New York Mets are one team in particular with one player, Francisco Alvarez, who they should be giving this type of long-term extension to. Here are some reasons why it should happen now.

Anthopoulos’s interest in signing his players early was to get them on contracts that would be very beneficial to the team going forward. Acuña makes $17 million per year through the 2028 campaign. Albies makes $7 million per year through the 2027 campaign. What Alvarez would make remains to be seen, but the idea would be to pay him now, to get him cheaper later.

One contract the Mets could consider is the one Keibert Ruiz signed with the Nationals. Ruiz signed an eight-year, $50 million extension that can be extended to 10 years for $76 million if his two club options are exercised. Alvarez would almost certainly cost more given that he is both younger and better than Ruiz, but he wouldn’t waste that amount with only 1.5 seasons of experience under his belt.

Let’s say the Mets offer him a nine-year deal that could reach $100 million if the club’s options are exercised. That would put Alvarez in his 31st season, where he would be just at the end of his prime. Wouldn’t that be incredibly profitable for the Mets?

An extension offer wouldn’t come out of nowhere, either. While there has been no word on an offer from the Mets to Alvarez, Jon Heyman of the NY Post reported during the offseason that Alvarez would be open to an offer.

“The Mets have yet to discuss an extension for Francisco Alvarez, but he seems willing to listen.”

The Mets were a team that was trying to get their finances in order this offseason, but they’re going to have to deal with a ton of financial losses after the 2024 campaign, mainly due to the expiring contracts of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. The Mets might be willing to explore something like this with that in mind.

The fact that Alvarez is open to a deal likely means he’s open to taking a deal that might look like a long-term discount, but one that provides him with a life-changing salary right now before he risks a serious injury. The Mets should try to extend his contract while he’s open to listening.

It may sound crazy since he’s only 22 years old and has only 1.5 years of MLB experience, but Alvarez is already one of the most important pieces on this Mets team and one of the best catchers in the league.

Alvarez may not have had a very high batting average, but he was one of two catchers in MLB history to reach the age of 21 and hit at least 25 home runs. The only other catcher to accomplish that feat was Johnny Bench.

Alvarez hit his 30th career home run in late June. Only two catchers have hit 30 at a younger age than Alvarez.

He hit 25 home runs as a rookie and has taken his game to a whole new level this season. Alvarez has missed time with injury this season, but he’s hitting .306/.372/.528 with four homers and 23 RBIs in 33 games so far in 2024.

His wRC+ of 157 ranks 14th among all players with at least 120 plate appearances, better than players like Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers and Yordan Alvarez. It’s the best mark among MLB catchers with at least 120 plate appearances overall.

Alvarez showed all his raw power in his rookie year, but he looked like a complete hitter in his sophomore season. He cut his strikeout rate from 26.0% to 20.7%. His walk rate jumped from 8.0% to 9.9%. He was recently rewarded by being moved to the No. 5 spot to protect Pete Alonso (and he’s doing a very good job).

Alvarez is best known for his bat, but his glove has been just as good, if not more impressive, during his short stint in the major leagues.

The 22-year-old ranks in the 74th percentile in pitching cadence quality according to Baseball Savant, which is well above average. He was in the 95th percentile last season, proving he’s an excellent pitch framer, which is crucial.

His pitching and blocking could be improved, but the Mets also pitch much better when Alvarez is behind the plate, to the point where his pitch calling and game planning can’t be ignored.

Mets pitchers have a 3.02 ERA for Alvarez, which is the third-best ERA for a catcher with more than 1,000 games behind the plate this season. Only Reese McGuire and J.T. Realmuto are ahead of him, and they’re operating with much better pitching staffs.

Other catchers who have played for this Mets team this season are Luis Torrens, Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. Mets pitchers had a 4.31 ERA against Narvaez before he was benched. They have a 4.68 ERA against Torrens. They had a 5.16 ERA against Nido before he was benched.

While luck may be on his side, it can’t be the only one. The difference is stark and can’t be ignored. Again, he’s only 22 and has earned the respect of many established pitchers like Max Scherzer, Justin VerlanderEdwin Diaz, and Jose Quintana to name a few.

Let’s say Alvarez’s contract extension, for whatever reason, doesn’t work out. Can’t the Mets afford it anyway?

It’s never ideal to pay a player who isn’t worth what he’s paying, but the Mets are owned by Steve Cohen, the game’s wealthiest owner. They’ve had the game’s highest payroll in each of the last two years and one of the three highest payrolls in each of Cohen’s four full seasons at the helm.

This is not the case for a small market team that can only afford to spend a certain amount of money to live and die with a risk like this. This Mets team would be able to recover from a failure quite easily.

Alvarez, a former top prospect, has shown legitimate star potential if he isn’t already a star right now. As long as Alvarez is ready, they have a chance to lock him up on a contract that could end up looking an awful lot like Atlanta’s. There’s only a tiny bit of risk, with the potential for a huge reward.