Congress has no room for complacency

TThe Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) has put up an impressive showing in the 2024 assembly elections in Kerala. It won 18 seats, one less than the 19 seats it won in the 2019 elections, out of a total of 20 seats.

In 2019, its success was attributed to the massive protest in Kerala against the Supreme Court order allowing women of all ages to enter the Lord Ayyappa temple at Sabarimala, as well as Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s candidature in Wayanad. This time, the strong anti-President sentiment against the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), helped the UDF.

In 2019, Congress leaders thought that the UDF would regain power in the 2021 assembly elections. They thought that fighting the LDF government would be enough for the coalition. However, that did not happen, largely because of the party’s complacency.

On the other hand, the LDF won on the back of its various social security measures, distribution of food kits through ration shops after COVID-19 and the successful experiment of a rainbow coalition of 11 constituencies. The Left created history by winning the 2021 assembly elections in the state, ending the nearly four-decade-long power alternation between the LDF and the UDF.

Developing a plan

Although the assembly elections are still two years away, the Congress has started drawing up a plan. The party has announced that its national general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, will contest the Wayanad by-election after her brother, Mr Gandhi, vacated his seat to retain the Rae Bareli constituency. The by-election is likely to coincide with the by-elections in Palakkad and Chelakkara assembly seats, which were vacated by the Congress’s Shafi Parambil and the CPI(M)’s K. Radhakrishnan, respectively, after their victory in the Lok Sabha elections.

The UDF will have to fight not only its traditional rivals but also the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance, which emerged as a formidable force in the Lok Sabha elections by securing 19.25 per cent votes and winning the Thrissur constituency.

Reeling from its electoral debacle, the CPI(M) has started implementing corrective measures within the party and the government. These rectifications could prompt Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who has been criticised for his style of governance, to reshuffle government portfolios and introduce measures to control bureaucracy.

The CPI(M) leaders have realised that their poor performance in the assembly elections was mainly due to the arrogant attitude of their leaders. Other factors that contributed to their woes were the state’s financial crisis, the LDF’s failure to implement existing welfare schemes and provide cost-of-living allowances to teachers and government employees, and the delay in payment of pensions to several lakhs of people.

CPI(M) state secretary MV Govindan pointed out that the influence of capitalist tendencies on the party cadre was a contributing factor in the LDF’s defeat. Serious allegations against the Prime Minister and his daughter, frequent man-animal conflicts and campus violence have worsened the party’s situation.

Also read | CPI(M) sacrifices its Rajya Sabha seat aspiration on the altar of LDF unity in Kerala

Moreover, the CPI(M)’s attempt to woo the Samastha Kerala Jem-iyyathul Ulama, a powerful group of Muslim scholars linked to the Indian Union Muslim League, backfired. Not only did it fail to yield results, it also led to an erosion of Hindu votes, especially in south Kerala.

The Congress is also likely to tread carefully as the BJP is set to strengthen its grip on the state by focusing on 40 of the 140 assembly seats. The induction of George Kurian, who hails from the Syro-Malabar community, into the Modi cabinet will certainly bolster the BJP’s efforts to woo Christians.

Drawing inspiration

It is also crucial for the UDF to recognise that most of its sitting MLAs were elected not on the basis of their performance but on the back of a negative vote against the LDF government. The CPI(M) continues to maintain a strong vote bank and the Left ecosystem in Kerala has not lost steam. To maintain the momentum in the run-up to the 2026 Assembly elections, the UDF leadership must take a leaf out of the INDIA bloc at the national level and assert itself strongly as the opposition to the CPI(M) in Kerala.