French left-wing coalition poised for surprise victory in legislative elections

Projections put President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in second place, no longer in control of parliament, and the battered far right in third.

With no bloc winning a clear majority, France faces uncertainty that could rattle markets and its economy, the European Union’s second largest, and cast a shadow of political instability over the opening of the Paris Olympics in less than three weeks.

Final results are not expected until Sunday night or Monday morning in a highly volatile snap election that redrew France’s political map before votes were cast, galvanizing left-wing parties to put aside their differences and unite when Macron announced just four weeks ago that he was dissolving parliament and calling an election, in a huge gamble the president hoped would shore up his centrist alliance.

That strategy does not appear to have paid off for the deeply unpopular president. Projections predict that his alliance will no longer be the largest group in parliament by a wide margin. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has significantly increased its seat count, but is far from achieving its hopes of securing an absolute majority that would have given France its first far-right government since World War II.

In Paris’ Place Stalingrad, left-wing supporters applauded and cheered as images of the alliance were projected on a giant screen. There were also cheers in Place de la République in eastern Paris, with people spontaneously hugging strangers and applause continuing for several minutes after the screening.

Jordan Bardella, 28, a protégé of Marine Le Pen who had hoped to become Prime Minister, lamented that the result of the vote “throws France into the arms of the far left”.

The leader of the left-wing coalition, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, urged Macron to invite the New Popular Front coalition to form a government. The alliance, he said, “is ready to govern.”

If official figures confirm these projections, they will leave one of the pillars of the European Union in a state of intense uncertainty, with no certainty over the future prime minister and the prospect that Macron will be forced to govern alongside a figure opposed to most of his domestic policies. The results will have repercussions for the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability.

Poll projections are based on actual vote counts in certain constituencies.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would resign but would also stay on in an interim capacity during the Olympics or as long as necessary, given that there could be weeks of negotiations to choose a new prime minister.

In a statement from his office, Macron said he would not rush to invite a potential prime minister to form a government. He added that he was closely monitoring the results and would wait for the new National Assembly to take shape before making “the necessary decisions,” while respecting “the sovereign choice of the French people.”

A parliament without an absolute majority, without any bloc capable of obtaining the 289 seats necessary for an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the more powerful of France’s two legislative chambers, would be uncharted territory for modern France.

Unlike other European countries, which are more accustomed to coalition governments, France does not have a tradition of seeing lawmakers from rival political camps come together to form a majority.

Macron surprised France, and many in his own government, by dissolving parliament after the far right gained ground in the French vote in June’s European elections.

Macron argued that sending voters back to the polls would bring France “clarification.” The president hoped that with France’s fate in their hands, voters might shift away from the far right and far left and back toward traditional, more center-leaning parties — where Macron found much of the support that won him the presidency in 2017 and again in 2022. That, he hoped, would strengthen his presidency for the three years he has left in office.

But rather than rallying behind him, millions of voters seized his surprise decision as an opportunity to express their anger.

In the first round of voting last weekend, voters voted in even greater numbers for the National Rally candidates than for the European deputies. The coalition of left-wing parties came in second, followed distantly by the centrist alliance.

The high degree of polarization in French politics — especially in this torrid and fast-paced election campaign — is sure to complicate any coalition-building efforts. Racism and anti-Semitism have marred the campaign, as have Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates have reported being physically attacked — a highly unusual occurrence in France. The government has said it is deploying 30,000 police officers for Sunday’s runoff — a testament to both the high stakes and fears that a far-right victory, or even the absence of a clear bloc victory, could spark protests.

Any cobbled-together majority risks being fragile, vulnerable to votes of no confidence that could bring it down.

Prolonged instability could increase suggestions from his opponents that Macron should cut short his second and final term. The French constitution prevents him from dissolving parliament again in the next 12 months, which could allow France to further clarify the situation.