A dragon in the room as Modi shares bread with Putin today

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dinner with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow has been planned since 2022. When the two men share the meal on Monday, it will be a dragon, not an elephant, in the room. It will likely be Russia-China relations that are among Prime Minister Modi’s top concerns.

Prime Minister Modi landed in Moscow later in the day on a two-day visit, his first since Russia engaged in war with Ukraine in 2022. Putin visited India in 2021 and Modi’s visit would have been in 2022, had it not been for the war in Ukraine.

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Since 2022, the geopolitical situation has changed radically. The West has tried, unsuccessfully, to paralyze the Russian economy. At the same time, Russia is strengthening its ties with China, much to the dismay of India.

India has walked a diplomatic tightrope and, despite pressure from Western countries, has maintained close ties with Russia. New Delhi bought oil from Moscowwhich has helped its economy stay afloat despite sanctions imposed by the West.

This is why the Kremlin said the West was jealous of Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Russia.

“They are jealous, which means they are watching him closely. “Their close monitoring shows that they attach great importance to it. And they are not mistaken, there is reason to attach great importance to it,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

While Russia has its eyes turned towards the West, particularly the United States, with which India is increasingly moving closer, New Delhi is thinking more of Beijing.

Ironically, it was the US itself that tried to get China to open a military front against India during the Bangladesh War in 1971. The US, under President Richard Nixon, was very close to Yahya Khan’s Pakistan and did not want East Pakistan to gain independence.

Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger pressured China to open a military front against India, says strategic expert Brahma Chellaney.

“It was Kissinger’s job to encourage the Chinese to launch troop movements toward the Indian border, according to declassified White House records and documents,” Chellaney wrote in an opinion piece published in Project Syndicate.

In these times of rapid diplomatic transition, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi has opted for a friendship treaty with Russia. Chellaney says the security provisions of this pact have helped deter China from opening a front against India.

This strategy of supporting China against Russia could backfire on the United States itself. Beijing has now become Washington’s nightmare when it comes to global influence.

Nixon had also mobilized his nuclear-armed 7th Fleet to counter India. The threat was only countered by Russia (then USSR) deploys its naval fleet in favour of India.

India has diversified its arms purchases in recent times, but Russia, New Delhi’s traditional brother-in-arms, remains one of its main supporters. More so because of the S400 missile system that India has purchased from Russia.

It is in a bid to counter China’s expansionism that India has developed and built its arsenal. Beijing has modernised its defence infrastructure on its borders, and the two countries are engaged in a stand-off in eastern Ladakh.

As Modi attends the private dinner with Putin at his dacha (cottage in Russian) on the outskirts of Moscow On Monday, he will examine Russia’s influence on China’s behavior.

Both India and Russia are aware of “the other’s interest in engaging with a geopolitical adversary,” says Ajay Bisaria, India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan.

“Russia recognizes that the US could be a closer partner for India, just as India sees Russia’s constraints in its close embrace with China. Yet India hopes that Russian influence will modulate Chinese behavior,” Bisaria writes for the Times of India.

Modi and Putin, during the Indian Prime Minister’s two-day visit, will review ties in a range of areas, including defense, investment, energy cooperation, education and culture.

In India’s calculations, Russia is part of its efforts to counter China, the Wall Street Journal reports.

However, the USSR’s non-interventionist approach during the 1962 Sino-Indian War remains a cause for concern, especially as Russia now appears dependent on China.

Brahma Chellaney, a strategy expert, believes that it is India that can convince Russia not to align too closely with China. He points out that the two countries are competitors and have very divergent interests in Central and Northeast Asia, as well as in the Arctic.

“Someone has to drive a wedge between Russia and China. With the US not wanting to take the lead, it is up to India to convince Russia not to align too closely with the People’s Republic,” Chellaney says.

So when Modi and Putin share bread at a dacha on Monday, there will be plenty to eat and an invisible dragon always ready to breathe fire.