Who will govern after the left’s surprise victory? – DW – 07/08/2024

It was an election night that stunned France, not to mention observers in Europe and abroad. When exit polls on Sunday night predicted an unexpected victory for a quickly assembled alliance of disparate left-wing parties, supporters of the New Popular Front (NFP) gathered on Paris’s famous Place de la République erupted in jubilation.

For the far-right National Rally (RN), which has been relegated to third place in terms of seats won in Parliament, the news is much darker. After winning the first round of the National Assembly on June 30, it seemed well on its way to taking over the government.

Sunday’s results far exceeded most voters’ expectations. The NFP won 188 seats, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist pro-business Together group took 161, and the National Rally, along with a few allied candidates, took 142.

It was a triumphant night for the left and a disaster averted for Macron and the centrists. But once the dust settled on Monday, reality set in. The task now will be to form a new government that reflects the results of last night’s election. But with the 577-seat parliament divided into three political blocs, no one has the absolute majority needed to dominate and push through their policies.

The cards may have been reshuffled in favor of the left and away from the far right, but it is unclear who will be in the cabinet of Macron’s government. His Renaissance party and the New Popular Front have been much in the way of blasphemy during the campaign. But now they need each other to block the far right. Chaos and a possible stalemate could be on the horizon.

What happens next?

The momentum now shifts to President Macron, who will remain in office until 2027 and will likely seek to form a new coalition government with key NFP figures in the coming weeks.

“What would make sense politically is for a center-left coalition to emerge from the rubble of the election result,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of political consultancy Eurasia Group. “Macron will, I fear, try to build a coalition that expands and expands from his own centrist coalition.”

On Monday, Macron did not appear to want to react quickly, despite pressure from the left. For example, he rejected an offer to resign from Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, according to a source close to the president.

Mr Attal, 35, also a member of Macron’s Renaissance party, will remain in his post “for the time being to ensure the stability of the country”, the source told reporters on condition of anonymity in a brief statement.

The first session of the new National Assembly will take place on July 18, although Macron does not have to appoint new members to important positions before then.

Who will get the title of Prime Minister?

NFP politicians immediately began jostling for the prime minister’s post on Monday. Green Party leader Marine Trondelier said Macron should approach them “today” to ask them to nominate a candidate, French media reported. Raphael Glucksmann, leader of the center-left Socialist Party, said they should be ready to nominate a candidate within a week.

The NFP rallied after Macron called early elections following the National Rally’s victory in last month’s European elections, quickly proposing a program focused on pension reform – still a hot-button issue in France – tax justice and education.

The alliance is led by the far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), but is also made up of social democrats, Greens and even communists.

Prime Minister Mélenchon?

Over the past three weeks, La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been mooted as a potential candidate for prime minister. Known for his fiery rhetoric, his critical stance toward NATO and the European Union, and his ambivalence toward Western support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, he is at odds with the French political mainstream.

But Sophie Pornschlegel of the European think tank Jacques Delors says no one knows who the next prime minister will be. Given the controversy surrounding Mélenchon, Pornschlegel says it is more likely that the prime minister’s post will go to the traditional centre-left Socialists, who come in just behind La France Insoumise.

“It would be difficult for Mélenchon,” she said. “I think if he were strategically smart, he wouldn’t do it (ask for the prime ministership). There’s already enough polarization.” It would be much easier to make a center-left coalition work if it were led by a more moderate figure, Pornschlegel argued.

How long will it take for France to have a new government?

For Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, the question is not so much who should get which job, but rather whether centrists and leftists can agree on a government program. “It will be very difficult because the left wants to reverse Macron’s pension reform, they have a set of commitments on taxes and spending that the center does not like,” he said.

If they can agree on the substance, it will not be difficult to determine who gets which important posts. In any case, Rahman does not believe it will be quick or easy. “I think we will see a government formation process that will take at least a few weeks, if not a few months. It will not be easy.”

How did the left manage to win a surprise victory?

As the second round of voting approaches, the National Rally appears stronger than ever. The party won 33% of the vote in the first round and, even though pollsters estimate that the RN will not be able to obtain an absolute majority, it is expected to secure the post of Prime Minister for its leader Jordan Bardella.

Turnout in the second round was the highest in decades, as Sophie Pornschlegal pointed out. For her, this indicates that many voters want to prevent the National Rally from coming to power. “So there was a real fear of seeing a far-right government come into place.”

Moreover, the NFP and Together have been very successful in their strategic withdrawals in the second round, avoiding triangular polls to avoid splitting their votes and handing victory to the National Rally candidates. “They did this in over 200 constituencies,” Pornschlegal said.

Could a centre-left coalition hold?

The French political system does not lend itself to “cohabitation”, with a president and a prime minister from different parties, or even to coalition governments.

Pornschlegel, however, believes that both sides have every reason to want this project to work this time in order to keep the far right out of power. While she admits that a “cohabitation” between the NFP and Macron would not be a “perfect situation,” Pornschlegel nevertheless adds: “But it has happened three times before, with center-left and center-right governments, and it worked as long as the parties were not totally extremist.”

But Rahman fears that France is heading for weeks or months of political chaos if negotiations between Macron and the NFP do not work out, predicting that there could even be new elections in the future.

“At best, I think we will end up with a deadlock in the assembly and potential political paralysis with a very weak and fragmented national unity government that may not be able to serve a full term,” he said. “At worst, we will end up with a technocratic government.”

“The far right did not get a majority, so the worst-case scenario was avoided,” Rahman said. “But frankly, the situation in France is evolving into a less stable and less coherent situation than what existed before. So this cannot be a good thing for France and its role in the world, or even in the European Union.”

Edited by: Jon Shelton