Possibilities and answers for the transfer of Lauri Markkanen from the Utah Jazz

What’s up with the Lauri Markkanen rumors you’ve heard?

The summer was quieter than Utah Jazz fans expected and management had predicted. Only backup center Drew Eubanks signed a minor contract, only Kris Dunn left. In many ways, the Jazz are the same team that struggled in the final two months of the season.

But trading Lauri Markkanen would change all that. It would arguably be the franchise’s boldest move since trading Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert two summers ago. It would also make them a lot worse at basketball.

Let’s break it down for everyone.

Why would the Jazz consider trading their best player?

In short, in the hope that they can get a better one.

Lauri Markkanen is an incredibly good basketball player: depending on how you rank him, he’s somewhere between the top 15 and 30 players in the league. His ability to score at every level with remarkable volume and efficiency has contributed to the Jazz’s 20-plus wins over the last two years. He’s awesome.

Better yet, he wants to stay in Utah. Markkanen is really enjoying living here, with a young family who are well-adjusted to the Utah lifestyle and the climate he enjoys.

But Markkanen isn’t a top-10 pick. It’s very difficult to win meaningfully in the NBA without one of those players. Worse yet, the Jazz have no obvious way to get one. It won’t happen through free agency, and getting one via trade has proven impossible so far. It’s certainly possible to get an elite player later in the draft, but it’s far less likely.

However, this upcoming draft has five potential franchise players, including Duke’s Cooper Flagg, who has already impressed in Team USA games by competing and holding his own against the best basketball players in the world at age 17. Flopping to get Flagg or another elite building block might make the most sense.

It’s certainly risky, though. The best outcome would be to pair Markkanen with this elite franchise player. It’s just unclear if they could get one in the near future, as he’s won a few games, but not enough, for the Jazz this year.

What would Jazz want in a Markkanen deal?

By all accounts, a lot. They’d be looking for high-value players and young players around whom they could build the team going forward, and hoping for a return equal to or greater than what the Brooklyn Nets got for Mikal Bridges a few weeks ago.

What impact would an extension have on the Jazz’s salary cap?

But the Jazz don’t need to trade Markkanen. Their other crucial option: renegotiate and extend his contract to keep him for the foreseeable future.

Currently, Markkanen has one year left on his contract, which will pay him $18 million through the 2024-25 season. After that, he would normally become an unrestricted free agent.

Because Markkanen is both a very good player and a positive trade asset, they wouldn’t want to lose him for nothing as a free agent. So the Jazz want to extend that contract and luckily, Markkanen is interested in staying.

For teams that are over the salary cap, they can only do so by offering up to 140% of a player’s current salary under the NBA rule. For Markkanen, that would be $25 million per year, which is still not what he’s worth on the open market.

But since the Jazz have a $34 million salary cap, they can use that space to renegotiate Markkanen’s salary this year and give him up to $42 million this season. That would match the $18 million he currently makes, plus an additional $24 million from the Jazz’s salary cap. The extension would come after that, making Markkanen a max of $209 million over four more years. The Jazz would pay extra money now in exchange for contract security later.

That’s a lot of money, but Markkanen and the Jazz will likely agree on a number just under that, which would give the Jazz $10 million to $20 million in cap space to exploit after the renegotiation and extension. (The Jazz would also like to reach the NBA’s salary floor, which requires them to have no more than $14 million in cap space at the start of the year.)

It’s worth noting that Markkanen’s extension also limits the Jazz’s salary cap space in the summer of 2025. The Jazz don’t have any major contracts expiring after the 2024-25 season to free up cap space.

What are the important dates to consider?

The Jazz can’t sign Markkanen to that extension until Aug. 6. That’s — sort of — the third anniversary of the date Markkanen signed his current contract.

Why “sort of”? Well, the date Markkanen’s extension was announced to the world was August 27, 2021; that’s when we first heard about the Chicago Bulls signing and his trade to the Cavaliers. But it turns out that Markkanen’s extension date on his paperwork is August 6, 2021, and the sign-and-trade simply took a long time to work out between the clubs. This detail, admittedly, is of interest only to extreme nerds.

But moving that date up three weeks is significant. After signing an extension, Markkanen would become untradeable for exactly six months. Coincidentally, six months after August 6th is February 6th, which is the NBA’s trade deadline.

So, if Markkanen were to sign his extension on the first day he’s eligible, he could still be traded on the same day of the NBA trade deadline. If he were to sign on the second day he’s eligible, or later, that would guarantee he’ll be a Jazzman for the entire 2024-25 season.

So this is an important point to watch: Will Markkanen and the Jazz sign the extension at the first opportunity, maximizing the team’s flexibility? Or will they sign it later, ensuring he stays longer?

By the way, this wrinkle was first pointed out by Marc Stein on his The Stein Line Substack.

What can other teams offer?

So far, the teams reportedly interested in Markkanen are the Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans and Minnesota Timberwolves. The list goes on, as Markkanen is perhaps the easiest star to integrate into the NBA.

The Warriors have been the most vocal, but they have significant limitations. First, they traded a protected top-20 first-round pick from 2030 to the Washington Wizards, which prevents them from trading their 2029 or 2031 picks due to the NBA’s Stepien Rule, which prohibits teams from trading picks in consecutive years. As a result, the Warriors can only trade two of their 2025-28 first-round picks to the Jazz; they could potentially offer picks 1-20 on the 2030 pick as well.

Second, the Warriors likely wouldn’t be able to trade for Markkanen after his extension due to their salary structure; that would force the Jazz to take on Draymond Green or Andrew Wiggins, which they won’t want to do.

So the Warriors’ best possible offer would be something like Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, two first-round picks, a protected third pick and a couple of pick swaps for Markkanen, all done in the next few weeks. It’s a solid offer, but not a sure yes from Jazz management.

The Kings are probably the second-most-relief-pitching team, which was more plentiful before the acquisition of DeMar DeRozan from Chicago. Still, Kings reporter James Ham indicated the team is still looking for a scoring forward to add to its core trio, including Markkanen. Third-year shooting guard Keegan Murray would be an interesting building block, and the Kings have nearly all of their future picks available for trade.

The Pelicans also still have their future draft picks available for trade, as well as a group of young players who are likely top-tier role players, such as Herb Jones, Trey Murphy and Jordan Hawkins.

The Spurs are perhaps the most asset-rich contenders: They still have all of their own picks, plus additional first-round picks from Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte (protected), and Dallas. They also have interesting young players like Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle. Unfortunately, the risk of trading Markkanen to the Spurs is that, because they are so well-positioned, the Wembanyama/Markkanen combination becomes an unbeatable Western Conference opponent for a decade, limiting the Jazz even after a rebuild.

Interestingly, the Timberwolves are reportedly interested (according to HoopsHype), as they have already traded nearly all of their draft assets to the Jazz. Jaden McDaniels and Rob Dillingham would be the starting point, but then what? That doesn’t seem like enough. The Heat have similar issues as they have already traded their 2025 picks and

2027; they could only trade their 2029 and 2031 picks to the Jazz. Jaime Jaquez is a good young player, but his potential is not up to par with a future star, in my opinion.