Israel's Northern Front Is Ready, But Will War With Hezbollah Break Out?

Hezbollah continues to attack northern Israel on a daily basis. It also continues to suffer losses. On July 16, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported that Hezbollah had suffered another loss. This time, it was a 60-year-old Hezbollah member from Bint Jbeil.

He is one of about 300 Hezbollah members killed in nine months. Although Hezbollah has suffered heavier losses than Israel, it believes it is winning this part of the conflict because Israelis continue to evacuate their homes in the north.

Hezbollah boasts every few days about its successes in attacks on the north. This week it said it had targeted more IDF sites. Overall, however, it appears that Hezbollah is still pretending, with daily attacks designed to keep up the pressure on Israel while the Gaza war continues.

Hezbollah has said it will stop its attacks once the Gaza war is over. Israel is more cautious. Israeli officials have said it may continue operations against Hezbollah.

On July 16, the Israeli military said: “Earlier today (Tuesday), two Hezbollah terrorists were identified as they fled the area from where projectiles were launched toward Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel yesterday (Monday). Following this identification, the Israeli military struck the terrorists in the Mansouri area in southern Lebanon.”

Fires rage in northern Israel due to Hezbollah rocket fire, May 10, 2024. (Credit: Screenshot)

In northern Israel, the Israeli army is ready for any eventuality. It has been ready for several months, training its units. This means training reservists and regular soldiers. The training includes many scenarios, usually battalions or brigades.

They also train to work in conjunction with other elements of their division or with the Israeli Air Force, local police and security teams, emergency services and the Navy. Everything is designed to be ready for a larger war in the north. Israel has always been prepared for a larger war in the north against Hezbollah. Now it could also be against Iranian-backed militias in Syria and even against Iraqi militias that want to go to Syria or Lebanon to support Iranian-backed groups.

Waiting for Godot

But Israel is bogged down in the war against Hamas, and that is why the northern front has become the second front, and not the big front that was expected.

Now it is the “tail” of Gaza that is moving the dog. This is not what the IDF had planned nine months ago. But any plan is only valid until contact with the enemy. Now we have seen the enemy in Gaza and we are waiting for him in the north. That is the meaning of the idea.

Israel is on the defensive in the north. This means that Hezbollah and Iran have the initiative. They choose when and where to attack. Israel responds with precise and proportionate strikes, usually on terrorist infrastructure. But the results may be diminishing in this area.

The feeling I have had in recent months is that the IDF is ready. It is like a horse that is champing at the bit, waiting for what comes next, but has also been trained and trained and trained. It is like a boxer who is ready for the arena but never gets the chance to step into the ring.

It all comes down to the political level and the decisions that can be made. Israel has learned a lot in these nine months of clashes with Hezbollah. Hezbollah has also learned a lot. Hezbollah is suffering losses, but it seems that these losses are continuing. Israel can also learn lessons from other modern conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine.

Hezbollah is backed by Iran, and Iran provides drones and drone technology to Hezbollah and Russia. This means that one can observe conflicts and see how groups backed by Iran or its partners use a mix of drones and missiles to terrorize civilians.

This is what Russia and Hezbollah are doing. This is what Iran did on April 13, when it launched about 350 projectiles at Israel, and its proxies launched another 150 projectiles, such as missiles and drones, targeting Israel.

Cheap weapons are changing the battlefield. Most of them are cheap drones. However, Hezbollah is also using precision-guided munitions, ATGMs and rockets to attack Israel. It is unclear whether Hezbollah is rebuilding its infrastructure that was damaged in a dozen villages near the border. Most civilians have fled the villages in southern Lebanon. The damage to Hezbollah is piling up. But there is always more to hit.

The Israeli army wants to help civilians return to northern Israel. There are still 50,000 people evacuated from northern Israel. Recently, four soldiers were injured by shrapnel from an intercept that landed in Kiryat Shmona. Two Israeli civilians were killed in the Golan by rocket fire. One soldier was killed in a Hezbollah drone attack on Kibbutz Kabri. All this shows the danger that Hezbollah poses to the north.

Hezbollah and the Israeli military are learning. The big question will be who has the better learning curve. Both bring new capabilities to the front lines. Pro-Iranian media recently reported that Hezbollah is using the Shahed 101 drone, which Al-Mayadeen described as a more capable drone than the one it used before. The threat of anti-tank guided missiles is also a major problem in the north.