Donald Trump suffers shock from Florida poll

Former President Donald Trump’s margins have narrowed in his home state of Florida, according to a new poll.

A presidential voting intention poll of 3,601 key state voters by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The telegraphfound that Trump’s margins over President Joe Biden have narrowed since June in two key states: Florida and North Carolina.

Trump had already beaten Biden in both states in 2020, when he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from June of that year.

But he now has a four-point lead over the current president in Florida. The poll shows that 45% of respondents plan to vote for Trump, compared to 41% for Biden.

This isn’t the only recent poll that gives Trump just a four-point lead in Florida. A Fox News poll from June gave Trump 50% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 46%.

However, polling aggregator Race to the White House gives Trump an average lead of eight points over Biden in the state, with Biden at 41 percent and Trump at 49 percent.

Florida has always been a swing state, voting for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, but more recently it has become a Republican stronghold. In November 2022, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election over his Democratic opponent with 59.4% of the vote to 40%.

In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won 51.2% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 47.9%.

The gap between Trump and Biden is also narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to a poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, his lead is now just two points, with 44% of respondents saying they would vote for Trump, compared to 42% for Biden.

According to the poll, Biden has a one-point lead over Trump in Michigan.

Trump’s lead isn’t completely reduced, however. The poll, conducted before the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday, shows him leading Biden by 2 to 6 points in five of the six key states.

At the same time, its margins have widened in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania since June.

The poll also includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is getting between 4 and 7 percent of the vote in key states, with best results in Arizona and worst results in North Carolina.

Although Biden typically gets more votes than Trump, the poll shows that a slightly higher percentage of 2020 Trump voters than Biden voters in North Carolina and Georgia plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Overall, the poll found that if Trump and Biden were the two major party nominees in 2024, a plurality of voters in all six states think Trump would have a better chance of winning the election.

Biden’s fitness for office has been in question since his faltering performance in the debate against Trump in June, in which he slurred his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.

Among swing state voters who watched, heard or read the June CNN debate, between 51 and 55 percent in all six states think Trump won the debate, compared to just 15 to 22 percent who think Biden won the debate.

The November election is shaping up to be a close one between Trump and Biden. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ national polling average shows the former president with a slim 1.7-point lead over Biden.