Iran may be on the verge of a five-front war

Iran, the United States and Israel remain on the brink of a wider regional war across the Middle East, as Tehran continues to threaten revenge for the Israeli strike on their mission in Damascus that killed two of its top generals.

US President Joe Biden, for his part, is convinced that Iran is threatening Israel with a major attack. His offer of “unwavering support” is a new benchmark in America’s complex diplomacy.

Iran has long been at the heart of the crisis that erupted after the October 7 massacre of Israelis. It arms and advises Hamas forces that continue to wage a bloody and nihilistic rearguard action under Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif in Gaza.

ISIS arms, advises and trains Houthi forces that attack ships in the Red and Arabian Seas with increasingly sophisticated methods. It bolsters Hezbollah’s forces, firing hundreds of rockets a week into northern Israel. Brigadier General Mohammed Reza Zahedi, the main target of the April 1 attack in Damascus, has coordinated with Hezbollah and insurgents in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.

The United States has been in intensive behind-the-scenes contact with Tehran’s military and civilian leaders, making clear that it would be obligated to come to Israel’s aid in the event of a direct attack.

“All roads lead to Tehran,” Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said yesterday, “in their use of proxies, training and equipment.”

But this could be both a strength and a weakness, because Iran could go too far and be tested on three, four or five fronts. It is caught in the Hezbollah trap in Lebanon and Syria, in its support for Hamas in Gaza, in its growing demand for support from the Houthis, in confrontations with Azerbaijan in the Caucasus and in support for Russia in Ukraine.

A direct attack could prove counterproductive. It would make Israel less isolated and bring it support from Europe and the United States.

Perhaps considering that revenge is a dish best served cold, Tehran may opt for a long-term strategy, which remains worrying.

Robert Fox is the defence editor of the Evening Standard.