If Taiwan Doesn't Pay for US Protection, US Won't Stop China From Invading Taiwan

President Trump has said that in his new administration, if he wins the election later this year, the United States might not defend Taiwan if China invades the country, unless Taiwan starts paying for its protection.

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Semiconductor stocks fell as investors factored in the lingering risk of lost sales to China due to U.S. export restrictions, according to Reuters. However, President Trump’s new comments on Taiwan pose a series of problems for investors and the world.

Over the course of my career in the tech industry (nearly 23 years now), Taiwan has become a major hub for virtually every tech product and brand. Apple, AMD, Intel, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Samsung, Sony, and many others have their chips manufactured at TSMC in Taiwan.

If Taiwan were ever to be invaded, it would be by China, and that would bring the world to its knees. Recent comments by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that if China took over TSMC, it would be “absolutely devastating” to the American economy.

Since President Trump made those remarks, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung has said Taiwan must rely on itself for its defense, increasing spending and modernizing its military after multiple threats from China.

Taiwan does not have a formal defense pact with the United States, but Japan and South Korea do, after Washington terminated a previous treaty the United States had with Taipei in 1979, when the latter transferred diplomatic recognition to Beijing. Chey added: “I think everyone agrees on the main point, that is, the Chinese threat. In fact, in terms of national defense, we must rely on ourselves, this is the prerequisite. Since the beginning of Taiwan’s democratization, over the past 30 years, we have faced the Chinese threat alone.“.

Taiwan is preparing at breakneck speed. The country has already begun reforming its military, as Lin pointed out, by extending conscription from four months to one year. The country has made modernizing its defense a priority, including developing its own submarines. The Taiwanese government has repeatedly said that the island’s security rests in its hands, especially given Taipei’s diplomatic isolation.

Previous U.S. administrations have pushed Taiwan to modernize its military so that it becomes a “porcupine” that would make it difficult for China to attack. Administrations have also pushed for the sale of cheap, mobile, and survivable “asymmetric” weapons that could survive any initial attack by the Chinese military.

Lin said: “We must be prepared to face a possible Chinese invasion, but we must be united. We hope that every morning when Xi Jinping gets up, even if he has a timetable for the future, he will say “not today.”“for attacking Taiwan.