Is Europe ready for a new transatlantic era?

This should be an opportunity for Europe.

When Joe Biden withdrew from the race for the US presidency, there was a palpable sense of relief in most European capitals.

As support for Biden waned, even within his own party, commentators – and leaders – across Europe grew increasingly concerned about Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House.

They remember the four years of his presidency. Between 2017 and 2021, Trump castigated Europe, especially Germany. He castigated NATO. He castigated the EU’s soft power and its values. He much preferred leaders who stood for conservative principles, who were anti-immigration and who defended national sovereignty. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán was, and still is, one of his big fans.

Europe’s relief at Biden’s withdrawal from the White House race is misplaced. The outcome of the US election remains uncertain. And once again, whatever the outcome, Europeans are unprepared for the tectonic shifts that are about to occur in the US.

European leaders have received many warnings about the imbalance in transatlantic relations. Trump has amplified what previous administrations have told Europe: It must stop taking the American security umbrella for granted. It must spend more on defense and take its own security seriously. It must stop taking advantage of its transatlantic ally. It must match its economic power with its political ambition.

French President Emmanuel Macron has understood these messages well. He has repeatedly asked Europeans to prepare for the “day after.”

Macron did not deliver an apocalyptic speech. In recent speeches and interviews, he warned of Europe’s vulnerability in terms of values, democracy and the European idea. His implicit message was that Europe had to defend itself against internal and external threats and against political parties that sought to challenge the EU’s essential architecture. No other European leader has been as direct and lucid about Europe’s weaknesses and how it sinks into crises instead of protecting what Europe – as part of the West – represents.

The West is founded on democracy, free elections, free media, the rule of law, an independent judiciary and accountability. This is a perspective and a system that is the opposite of authoritarianism.

If this system were not attractive, why would people around the world demonstrate for human and civil rights? These are universal. They are not Western inventions as their opponents claim. They must be defended, and with confidence.

The defense of European and Western values ​​is linked to the situation in the United States. American leadership is being challenged by China, particularly in the Middle East. Israel’s war against Hamas is not limited to Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long considered Iran to be the greatest threat to his country. His decision to bomb Iranian-backed Houthi targets in Yemen hints at the wider regional implications of the Gaza war.

To contain the conflict, the United States and the Arab countries will have to take the lead. The EU cannot be counted on. It is reduced to a spectator role in the region. The US Departments of State and Defense will have to play a mediating role, even if the country will be entirely preoccupied with its internal problems.

From a different perspective, Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race illustrates another element of Europe’s vulnerability.

Biden is the last truly Atlanticist president. His career, his foreign policy experience and his age have made him an Atlanticist who believed in lasting ties between the United States and Europe. The younger generation does not have this institutional memory or this connection to Europe.

These links, exemplified after 1945 by the US-led multilateral institutions such as NATO, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the UN and all its subsidiary bodies, are in a bad way. The post-1945 and post-Cold War periods, when the West naively believed it could impose itself in perpetuity, are coming to an end.

Europe is not prepared for this. Neither Europe nor the United States are modernizing these institutions. It is China, supported by Russia, that is trying to reshape, replace or disrupt them.

It is difficult to see how Europe could react.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants the EU to have a chief of defence and a common defence spending policy. She says Russia’s war against Ukraine shows why this is necessary. But not all member states are convinced. Defence remains a national and sovereign issue.

Some member states want a Union that does away with unanimity and the right of veto on foreign policy issues. They want a more integrated Europe rather than an EU subject to the member states.

It’s mainly about Europe. The EU’s twenty-seven member states disagree on the direction the Union should take. Greater political and economic integration would make sense. But several countries want to regain more sovereignty at the expense of a Europe that is more capable and better prepared for “the day after”.

With the US so focused on November 5, Europe has an opportunity to take matters into its own hands. Unfortunately, with the exception of a weakened President Macron, European leaders, and especially Germany, lack the courage to explain and do what is necessary.

* Strategic Europe leaves for summer vacation on July 24th and will return on September 3rd. We wish all our readers, contributors, friends and colleagues a safe, healthy and relaxing summer. ~ Judy Dempsey