Putin under pressure as Ukraine incursion continues, could give kyiv a hand in peace talks, experts say

Moscow has deployed troops to the Kursk region after a Ukrainian incursion into Russian territory that raised major questions for the Kremlin and presented kyiv with a major opportunity.

“Given the significant disparity in combat potential in Russia’s favor on the battlefield, Ukrainian forces appear to be shifting toward, or at least escalating, unconventional warfare, bringing the war deeper into Russia,” Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst and author of “Putin’s Playbook,” told Fox News Digital.

“With this latest surprise incursion into the Kursk region, Zelensky is probably trying to demonstrate to Putin that as long as there is no peace in Ukraine, the Russian people will not sleep peacefully either,” Koffler said. “kyiv is probably also trying to strengthen its negotiating position in a possible peace deal with Moscow.”

Russia has withdrawn an unspecified group of operational reserves, including conscript units, former Wagner members and a number of special forces, including the Chechen special forces unit Akhmat, according to the online newspaper Ukrayinska Pravda.

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Ukraine launched incursions into the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions on Tuesday and shows no signs of slowing down after four days. The events have put the Russian military command under fire for intelligence and tactical shortcomings that allowed such an attack.

Ukrainian troops have seized about 100 square miles of territory, the Washington Post reported.

A Russian military blogger speculated that Russia could have relied on forces that had been gathering for an offensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

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A retired U.S. Army sergeant major told Fox News Digital that Russia and Ukraine have returned to a stalemate — one that has plagued both sides every year since the invasion began in 2022 — but that Russia has concentrated so much of its forces on the front lines that any strikes along the border will strain Russian forces.

The sergeant major suggested that Ukraine had taken a calculated risk in attacking near Kursk to see if Russia could absorb the stress, citing the “Wagner debacle” last year, when the then-leader of Wagner’s forces, Yevgeny Prigozhin, took a small force and marched 200 kilometers from Moscow with apparently little resistance.

“Look how far the Wagner group went,” the expert said. “I believe they could have gotten all the way to Moscow if Putin had not made some kind of deal that prevented them from going to Kursk. I bet that event set the wheels of the plan turning.”

Bringing the war closer to the Russian population could destabilize them because they would feel the war was hitting them at home and, hopefully, create major domestic disruptions for the Russian government, creating two fronts for the Kremlin and dividing the government’s attention, he said.

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“There is a massive Ukrainian operation on the Internet – perhaps on the ground – that is trying to trigger anti-war protests,” the expert said. “All this is putting pressure on Putin.”

Some Russian military bloggers have expressed concern that the incursion could create a major diversion and draw significant resources away from retaking the territory. Koffler warned that the attacks, rather than weakening Putin’s position, could actually strengthen his claims on Ukraine.

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According to Mr. Koffler, Putin “will use this opportunity to tell the Russian people that this is precisely why Ukraine must be crushed, decisively defeated. This is why we must continue to make sacrifices by going to the front lines to fight the Ukrainians.”

“Russian media are already accusing the United States of being behind this Ukrainian operation,” Koffler said. “So the vicious circle will continue, leading to more and more destruction and increasing the risk of an escalation to a larger war in Europe, which could draw in NATO and the United States.”