Defining the Pick – Three Win Totals to Consider Washington Wizards Houston Rockets Phoenix Suns

The NBA preseason has begun and fans got their first glimpse of new faces in different places.

Several newcomers took the court for the first time.

Old veterans found themselves wearing new t-shirts.

A lot of teams that have put their chips in the middle seem poised to become legitimate contenders.

This season promises to be a year of parity for those fighting to chip in, while teams at the bottom will be focused on the draft with such a promising 2025 class.

With these factors in mind, let’s dive into my three favorite FanDuel win totals for this upcoming season.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS UNDER 20.5 WINS (-104)

Let’s have some fun and open with my depressing pick of the season for Debbie.

I don’t think Washington will simply follow this line; I think they will end 2024-25 with the worst record in the NBA.

With Cooper Flagg leading the upcoming draft, the Wizards appear poised to pursue generational talent.

Washington is clearly not a playoff team, so for the franchise’s long-term benefit, they should be highly motivated to lose games.

Even if they weren’t, this list has no winning players.

Looking at the projected starting five, the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, Alexandre Sarr, is facing a steep learning curve based on his Summer League and preseason performance.

French sophomore Bilal Coulibaly has shown potential as a solid perimeter defender, but still lacks the shooting touch to avoid being a liability on offense.

Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma demonstrated their abilities as volume scorers, but both ranked in the bottom 30% of effective field goal percentage (terrible for their two leading scorers).

Then there’s 32-year-old Jonas Valanciunias, who has become increasingly limited on both ends of the floor and could very well be a trade piece in February.

To make matters worse, one of the most competent players, Malcolm Brogdon, will miss the first month of the year.

The Wizards finished last season with 15 wins, losing Daniel Gafford at the deadline.

In the summer, they lost Deni Avdija and Tyus Jones, further depleting their squad.

This will be a developmental season for Washington – they have two solid rookies in Sarr and Bub Carrington, plus Coulibaly, who has plenty of future promise.

Winning is simply not a priority right now.

In their final preseason game against New York, Washington turned the ball over more than 30 times.

Combine that with last season’s third-worst defensive rating and you have a recipe for a lot of losses.

HOUSTON ROCKET OVER 43.5 WINS (-108)

Every year there is an emerging team that takes a big leap above expectations.

This year, I’m betting the Rockets will be those guys.

In 2023-24, the Oklahoma City Thunder have crushed their win total to 12.5 wins.

Three years ago, the Grizzlies jumped from 38 to 56 wins.

Houston has many components needed to make a similar leap.

As one of the youngest teams in the NBA, the improvements made over the past season are very encouraging.

Before the All-Star Break, they had the 16th-best net rating and were six games below .500.

In the second half, they flipped the script and went on an 11-game winning streak, finishing with the seventh-best record in the Western Conference.

Two years ago, this was a 22-win franchise trying to figure out life post-James Harden.

Last year, they made three key acquisitions, adding stability to their young core – Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and coach Ime Udoka.

Houston went from the second-worst defensive rating to the 10th-best last year.

Their attack moved up seven places led by Alperen Sengun’s organic growth.

Considering the average age of its rotation, it’s reasonable to expect continued organic growth. Their career trajectories are on the rise, as opposed to aging rosters like the Clippers or Lakers.

This bet is strongly anchored in my belief that Udoka is a proven development coach.


His history with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown cannot be ignored.

Don’t forget he was in charge when Boston went from a .500 team in January 2022-23 to an NBA Finals appearance.

This team is hungry and Udoka clarified that at Media Day by stating the playoffs as the goal.

Their youth will help them win regular season games as older rosters manage their players.

Houston arguably has one of the five best 10-man rosters in the league.

PHOENIX SUNS OVER 46.5 WINS (-118)

Often the best bet is to zig when everyone else is zagging.

I’m confident this year’s Suns will be better than the last.

This team’s speech is always negative, regardless of the reality on the court.

As good a scorer as he is, Kevin Durant has had a target on his back for years.

To this day, the way he won two championships continues to discredit his impact on the court.

Last season was close to the worst-case scenario for Phoenix, but they managed 49 wins.

Injuries plagued them from the start and it took 23 games into the season before the Big-3 took the court for the first time.

They ended up playing just 41 times together, half of the regular season.

During that span, they maintained a 26-15 record, good for a 52-win pace.

Considering their injury history, you have to assume all three will miss more than 10 games this season.


But it’s not unreasonable to expect 50-60 games played together as a baseline.

At the time of this article, all three players are healthy at the start of the season, unlike last year.

The two additional factors that should encourage him are depth and the new coach.

Last season, the Suns never drafted a true point guard and had six players on minimum contracts.

Signing Tyus Jones to his 1-year, $3 million contract (a player whose market value is much higher) is a huge game changer in 2024-25.

Phoenix also signed free agent Monte Morris, another reliable PG who can orchestrate the offense.

Another worrying position is the center, with Jusuf Nurkic mainly controlling the fort.

The Suns once again may have found gold in the bargain bin with Mason Plumlee coming off the bench.

This is a player who is one season removed from averaging 12.2 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 3.7 apg before being traded to Los Angeles.

He’s a solid upgrade over last year’s Drew Eubanks.

Additionally, rookie Ryan Dunn is a player to keep an eye on.

He was overlooked by most teams during this draft due to his limited offensive play. But he was a college defensive end, playing a critical role on the Suns team.

With the Big-3, they don’t need more points. Phoenix needs help on defense.

Transitioning to head coach Mike Budenholzer, his regular season record speaks for itself.

The two-time Coach of the Year had two successful stints with Atlanta and Milwaukee compiling a lifetime winning percentage of .604.

He has proven he can work with superstar egos and implement a structure that mirrors his players on the court.

Injuries will end up being the determining factor in this bet going in the opposite direction.