Bangladesh protests have implications for India. New Delhi must engage militarily

RDevelopments have historically reshaped societies, governments and the world. They are usually motivated by a combination of economic, political and social injustices. For example, Financial hardship and economic inequality often fuel discontent; Lack of political freedoms and authoritarian rule can lead to widespread anger; And perceived or real grievancesWhen amplified by a judiciously orchestrated media campaign, can mobilize large groups of people.

Revolutions also usually take strange turns. A protest can start with limited goals in mind but could acquire a life of its own, leading to unexpected results. Different agendas and interests interfere, often hijacking the cause of the original protest And turning it into a full-fledged revolution, with varying results.

Mixed: The French Revolution (1789) overthrew the monarchy, leading to a republic, but also brought about the Reign of Terror and eventually the rise of Napoleon. BonaparteSimilarly, while the colour revolutions in Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004) and Kyrgyzstan (2005) brought about significant political change and democratic advances, their long-term success in terms of lasting reforms and stability has been mixed.

Negative: Some revolutions have not had the desired results and have instead led to even greater chaos and disorder. The Arab Spring (2010-2012), for example, led to civil wars in countries such as Syria and Libya.

The Bangladesh Revolution

On August 5, Student-led protests in Bangladesh led to the ouster of the democratically elected leader, Sheikh Hasina. The protestswhich started in December 2022, were powered by long time problems that had accumulated for many years. Miscellaneous factors that contributed to the uprising And its escalation into a full-scale revolution. Addressing some of these concerns quickly and with empathy could have stifled the protests in the bud.

A major trigger was the reinstatement of a controversial quota system for government jobs, which heavily favored the descendants of freedom fighters. for demonstrationsThis system was considered unfair by many students, especially given the high rate of youth unemployment. in Bangladesh.

The government’s brutal response to peaceful protests, including the use of force and extrajudicial killings, has further aggravated the situation. The death of student leader Abu Sayed, for example, has become a rallying point for the movement.

There has been a clear lack of constructive dialogue between the government and the protesters. Addressing the students’ concerns through constructive dialogue and reforms could have prevented the escalation.

The revolution was not just about the quota system, but also about broader issues like corruption, lack of transparency and economic inequality. A proactive approach to these systemic problems could have mitigated the unrest. A government perceived as increasingly autocratic and disconnected from the realities on the ground added fuel to the fire.

---

Also read: Bangladesh’s Jamaat-e-Islami can only go so far with its anti-India rhetoric. It must address its 1971 role

---

Lessons for the future

While the immediate causes of the revolution could have been addressed through better governance and deeper dialogue, deeper problems require comprehensive reforms. The current regime will need to address these issues as a priority to prevent the resurgence of protests, a manifestation of long-standing frustrations that have reached a tipping point.

Nevertheless, the future of the student revolution in Bangladesh looks bright, with the potential for significant political and social reforms, quite comparable to the student-led protests in Poland (1980). Student protests in Bangladesh and Polanduniversities and hostels became centers of intense student activity and planning. Their respective governments Also answerdeceased with brutal tactics, causing a large number of casualties, further aggravating the situation.

In Bangladesh, the road ahead will require careful navigation and continued efforts to address the underlying issues that sparked the protests. Already, the protest has brought important changes that could well shape the future of the country.

An interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has been established, And The government has student leaders in important positions. This government is trying to stabilize the country and respond to the demands of the protesters. However, new clashes show that the situation remains volatile.

Student protesters are considering forming a new political party to support their movement and ensure lasting political change, go beyond the “Battle of the Begums”. This change reflects a transition from protest to active politics engagement.

The interim government faces many challenges, such as rebuilding the political system and ensuring stability, but the future is optimistic. The protection of religious minorities is one such challenge that will need to be addressed as a priority. The involvement of young leaders brings new perspectives and a commitment to democratic values.

The revolution attracted international attention, highlighting issues such as unemployment and the need for political reform.

---

Also read: Bangladesh is now India’s potential enemy, Pakistan a declared enemy, China a declared enemy

---

Consequences for India

Instability in one of our neighboring countries, especially those with whom we share land borders, such as Pakistan or Myanmar, always affected Our country, Bangladesh, is no exception. The student revolution in Bangladesh has several implications for India:

Political and diplomatic relations: The upheavals have led to a slowdown India-Bangladesh Bilateral relations, who were previously at a record high. India has adopted a balanced approach, engaging with the caretaker government while don’t give up links with his long-time allies. Although India has underlines that the troubles are Bangladesh internal issue, it also facilitated the safe return of thousands of Indian citizens, including students, in the midst of violence.

Economic impact: The protests have disrupted trade between India and Bangladeshaffecting commercial activities, particularly those involving Indian traders and companies operating in Bangladesh.

Security issues: There are concerns about the potential fallout from the protests in India, particularly in Northeast States. India must monitor the situation closely to avoid any cross-border involvement, including the threat of a third front. A sustained commitment at the military level is the need of the moment, particularly given that the Bangladesh army has proven be A stabilizedming force.

Humanitarian and social impact: Violence and instability have led to a constant flow of Indian diaspora in Bangladeshespecially students enrolled in medical programs, who are returning to India. The evacuation Indian citizensas seen in Ukraine (2022) And Sudan (2023), underlines the governmentthe capacity of up to the situation. This situation also emphasizem the need for better security measures for Indian nationals abroad.

While the student revolution in Bangladesh is primarily an internal affair, its repercussions are being felt in India. feeling in Bangladesh, including calls by members of the caretaker government to review all agreements and treaties between India and Bangladesh, is not a good sign. This situation requires a balanced response from the Indian government, keeping the channels of communication open with all stakeholders.

General Manoj Mukund Naravane PVSM AVSM SM VSM is a retired Indian Army General who served as the 28th Chief of Army Staff. Views are personal.

(Edited by Aamaan Alam Khan)