Paris Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko: Who has the advantage?

UFC 306 is set to put on a show in Las Vegas on Mexican Independence Day weekend, and the promotion’s Mexican world champion is looking to pick up the biggest win of her career.

Undisputed women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso heads into fight night at the spectacular Sphere knowing she can give Mexican fight fans a dream result by fending off the challenge of the woman she defeated to win the belt.

Valentina Shevchenko is the greatest flyweight champion in the division’s short history, having held the belt for four and a half years. “Bullet” won the title with a victory over former strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and defended it seven times, defeating Jessica Eye, Liz Carmouche, Katlyn Cerminara (née Chookagian), Jennifer Maia, Jessica Andrade, Lauren Murphy, and Taila Santos.

Heading into 2023, it seemed like Shevchenko was on the verge of taking over the entire women’s flyweight division, but Grasso had other ideas. At UFC 285, Grasso dominated Shevchenko on the feet, then finished the longtime champion with a rear-naked choke in the fourth round to win the title and become the first Mexican woman to capture UFC gold.

A rematch immediately followed at UFC Noche last September, with Grasso retaining her title after the fight was declared a no-contest. The result of the second fight meant a trilogy seemed inevitable, and the two fighters will face off for a third time in the co-main event of UFC 306/UFC Noche next weekend in Sin City.

UFC 306
The Sphere, Las Vegas
Television: TNT Sports
Night of Saturday 14 to Sunday 15 September

THE FORMS GUIDE

ALEXA GRASSO JUST WON

Grasso is on a six-fight unbeaten streak, with five wins that put her atop the division, and this split draw keeps her there… just barely!

Prior to defeating Shevchenko by submission, her UFC career was largely limited to decision wins. In fact, she only had two victories inside the distance at the Otagon, and one of those came against then-champion Shevchenko.

VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO JUST WON

Shevchenko has been the gold standard at 125 pounds for years, and her loss to Grasso at UFC 285 is her only UFC defeat at flyweight. Her rebound performance against Grasso ended in a draw, as she came close to regaining her title, but she was cruelly denied on the scorecards.

She now has the chance to reclaim her title, and to do so she will need to win her first victory since June 2022.

THE KEYS TO VICTORY

The two fights between the two men showed how well matched they are, but both have clearly defined paths to victory. It will all come down to who can take the fight to his own path.

To retain her title, Grasso will have to rely on her boxing skills. While Shevchenko is an excellent puncher herself, Grasso has had the upper hand in the boxing exchanges, and if she can keep the fight standing and control Shevchenko’s kicks, she has the boxing ability to dominate Bullet on points over the course of five rounds. She could even make Shevchenko step on something to give herself a chance to finish the fight on the ground, but a decision victory built on her boxing prowess seems like the best path to success.

Shevchenko, meanwhile, needs to make this fight a true MMA fight. That means keeping Grasso on her toes with a powerful leg kick attack and smart counterboxing on the feet, but more importantly, it also means using her wrestling effectively and well-timed to take the fight to the ground. If Shevchenko can counter smartly and invest in leg kicks on the feet, and dominate the exchanges on the mat, she has the ability to win the fight on the cards, or perhaps even find a finish on the ground.

#WHATSPADDY

This fight is incredibly close, as you can see from the fight odds above. It’s a virtual draw. But there are other ways to spice up fight night than just trying to pick a winner at short odds.

With #WhatOddsPaddy you have the opportunity to create your own bet. Here are some options you might consider:

Valentina Shevchenko will achieve more than 5 takedowns
Valentina Shevchenko will land 5 or more takedowns and win by decision

Shevchenko is one of the most cerebral fighters in the UFC, and after spending nearly 45 minutes in the octagon with Grasso, there’s a good chance she’s come up with the perfect game plan to dethrone the Mexican and reclaim her old title. And, as I suggested above, that game plan will almost certainly involve wrestling — lots of wrestling.

LEARN MORE

The Paddy Power Guide to Safer Gambling – Everything you need to know