Assessing Arizona Wildcats’ playoff chances ahead of bye week

The Arizona Wildcats suffered a loss last Friday to Kansas State that was significantly more lopsided than many, likely including the Arizona locker room, expected.

The Wildcats traveled to Manhattan and got trounced 31-7 in what can only be considered an official Big 12 welcome by a team that has been near the top of the conference for most of the last two decades. As head coach Brent Brennan said after the loss, the bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Arizona.

Things aren’t getting any better after the bye week, with a long trip to Utah in a game that will be just as, if not more, difficult than Kansas State. The good news for the Wildcats is that while the disappointment of Friday’s result is probably still terrible, everything is still ahead of them if they want it to be.

Despite the fact that the game was technically a matchup between two Big 12 teams, it was agreed that it would be played before the Pac 12 dissolved and Arizona agreed to join the conference. As a result, both schools agreed to play the game but not count it toward conference standings. In other words, the Wildcats are still 0-0 as they approach the start of conference play after the break.

Given the new College Football Playoff structure, the Big 12 champion will automatically advance to the 12-team CFP. With no divisions, Arizona must finish in the top two in the conference to have a chance at making the CFP, as the non-conference loss likely ruined any chance of making the CFP.

Fortunately for the Wildcats, they won’t be playing any of the other currently ranked teams in their 9-game conference schedule after the trip to Utah. They have some tough road games against teams like BYU, UCF, and TCU, but overall, it’s a very manageable schedule.

Ultimately, Arizona would likely have to face the best team in the league to earn a berth in the expanded playoffs, but a strong conference run hypothetically gives the Wildcats a great chance to be where they want to be at the end of the year: playing meaningful football with everything still ahead of them.

But things should tighten up, and fast, as Arizona got a taste of what it will take to compete for a Big 12 title.