Tim Benz: Mike Tomlin hates QB guesses, but he has to consider this one

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin hates guesswork. Especially when it comes to the quarterback position. He tells us that every week.

In the meantime, I love hypotheticals. Especially when it comes to the quarterback position. I try to come up with a new one every week.

Sorry, “Coach T.” It’s kind of part of the job.

Here’s one to consider. It’s specifically aimed at the segment of the Steelers fan base that has convinced itself that Justin Fields should be the starting quarterback going forward simply because the Steelers started the season 2-0 under his leadership.

What if the Steelers were 2-0 under Russell Wilson, and Wilson had put up the exact same numbers as Fields?

Think about it.

What if Wilson was 2-0 as a starter but scored just 31 points in two games, made six field goals in Week 1, had just 62 yards of offense in the second half of Week 2 and scored just one touchdown in eight quarters?

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Would we all congratulate Wilson for “getting the job done and winning the game”? Or would we all demand that Wilson be benched in favor of Fields because the Steelers were winning despite the quarterback?

This is not so much a hypothetical question as a rhetorical question, because I’m pretty sure we all know the answer.

Like most football fans, we have completely different expectations of the substitute and the starter. We have a kind of conscious-unconscious intellectual disconnect.

Take two quarterbacks. Apply the same numbers and team results to both players. Then draw completely different conclusions.

If the starter’s numbers are “X”, then “Y” is not enough. If the substitute’s numbers are “X”, then his “Y” is still an A+!

That’s what would have happened if Wilson had emulated Fields’ performance as a starter. Now, we may never know, especially if Tomlin buys into the same narrative as the fans just because the team is winning.

I bring this up… uh… “hypothetical rhetoric“to fans for no other reason than to underscore the well-established fact that it is our inherent human nature to be nothing but filthy hypocrites when it comes to evaluating the play of our favorite NFL team’s QB.

It is our divine right as ticket-buying, TV-watching, social-media-swiping customers: Starting QB is bad. Backup QB is good.

End of analysis.

However, I raise this “rhetorical hypothesis” with Tomlin for much more pragmatic reasons.

On Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, if Fields and the Steelers were to win their third straight game to start 2024 the exact same way they won the first two, then Tomlin and his staff will have to engage in a very important conversation about what to do at quarterback for Week 4 if Wilson is healthy.

They must ask themselves:

• If they like Fields so much as a starter, why isn’t he allowed to do more? Why is he only throwing the ball for 6.3 yards per attempt, 23rd in the NFL? Why are his red zone pass attempts (five) 22nd in the league? Why has he thrown just 10 balls for 10-plus yards in two games (29th in the NFL)? Why has he been allowed to throw just 12 passes beyond the first-down marker, while completing eight of them?

• If Fields has such potential, shouldn’t he have more of a plumb line to make the offense fly? And if the answer to that question is: “No, because if that happens, he will start making mistakes.So why are we having this conversation in the first place?

• Perhaps more importantly, Tomlin has to wonder if 15.5 points per game would be more like 21 or 22 points per game if Wilson were the QB instead of Fields.

How big a difference? Well, 15.5 points per game would have been 30th in the NFL last year, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots at 13.9 each. Twenty-two points per game would have been 15th, one spot ahead of the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

So we can’t keep winning like this. We can’t win with 15.5 points per game.

There is nothing hypothetical about this.

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LISTEN: Tim Benz and Joe Rutter discuss the Steelers’ QB situation, Broderick Jones’ struggles, Troy Fautanu’s rise and Sunday’s game against the Chargers.