Sri Lanka to vote for first time since economic collapse

Published on: 09/19/2024 – 07:43Amended: 09/19/2024 – 07:40

3 minutes

President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 75, is seeking a new term after claiming credit for stabilizing the economy and ending months of shortages of food, fuel and medicine.

He also restored calm to the streets after civil unrest sparked by the 2022 economic crisis saw thousands storm the compound of his predecessor, who quickly fled the country.

“Think about the time when all hope was lost… we had no food, no fuel, no medicine, no hope,” Wickremesinghe said in the final days of the campaign.

“You now have a choice. Decide whether you want to return to the period of terror or move forward.”

But tax hikes and other austerity measures imposed by Wickremesinghe as part of a $2.9 billion IMF bailout have left millions struggling to make ends meet.

Experts warn that Sri Lanka’s economy remains vulnerable, with payments on the island’s $46 billion external debt yet to resume since the government defaulted in 2022.

Wickremesinghe said he would continue his austerity programme if elected and warned that any deviation from IMF prescriptions would lead to more problems.

“The elections will largely be a referendum on how Wickremesinghe’s government handled the economic crisis and the modest recovery that followed,” the International Crisis Group said in a report this week.

He added that many citizens were suffering “tremendous hardship as Colombo cut spending and took other austerity measures that were seen by the public as unfair.”

Rising Red Star

Wickremesinghe faces two formidable opponents, including Anura Kumara Dissanayaka, the leader of a once-marginal Marxist party tarnished by its violent past.

The party led two failed uprisings in the 1970s and 1980s that left more than 80,000 dead, and won less than 4% of the vote in the last parliamentary elections.

But the crisis in Sri Lanka has proven to be an opportunity for Dissanayaka, who has enjoyed a surge in support thanks to his promise to change the island’s “corrupt” political culture.

Analysts say he is likely to benefit from public anger over the corruption scandals and chronic economic mismanagement that precipitated the crisis.

“There are a significant number of voters who are trying to send a strong message… that they are very disappointed with the way this country is being governed,” Murtaza Jafferjee of the Advocata think tank told AFP.

His opposition colleague Sajith Premadasa, once seen as the dynast prince of a former president assassinated in 1993 during the country’s decades-long civil war, is also favoured to make a strong showing.

The 57-year-old, a former ally and deputy of Wickremesinghe until he renounced his former boss in 2020, campaigned on a promise to extract concessions from the IMF.

“We will review the unfair burden-sharing structure of the IMF-backed tax code revision that forces professionals to seek employment abroad,” Premadasa said in his manifesto.

Official data showed that Sri Lanka’s poverty rate doubled to 25% between 2021 and 2022, adding 2.5 million people to those already living on less than $3.65 a day.

The IMF said reforms were starting to bear fruit, with inflation below 5%, down from a peak of 70% at the height of the crisis, and growth slowly returning.

“A lot of progress has been made, but the country is not out of the woods yet,” the IMF’s Julie Kozack told reporters in Washington last week.

“It is important to preserve these hard-won gains.”

© 2024 AFP